The Met Office Atlantic tropical storm forecast for 2014 is for 10 tropical storms between June and November, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 7 to 13. The long-term average over the period 1980–2010 is 12 tropical storms.
Specifically for hurricanes (storms with winds of at least 74 mph) the best estimate is 6, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 3 to 9; the 1980–2010 average is 6 hurricanes.
The most likely value for the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index — a measure of the strength and duration of storms over the season — is 84, with a 70% chance that the index will be in the range 47 to 121; the 1980–2010 average ACE index is 104.
The evolution of the El Niño…
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