Met Office predicts below average Atlantic hurricane season

Official blog of the Met Office news team

The Met Office Atlantic tropical storm forecast for 2014 is for 10 tropical storms between June and November, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 7 to 13. The long-term average over the period 1980–2010 is 12 tropical storms.

Specifically for hurricanes (storms with winds of at least 74 mph) the best estimate is 6, with a 70% chance that the number will be in the range 3 to 9; the 1980–2010 average is 6 hurricanes.

The most likely value for the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index — a measure of the strength and duration of storms over the season — is 84, with a 70% chance that the index will be in the range 47 to 121; the 1980–2010 average ACE index is 104.

An image of Hurricane Sandy taken on October 28, 2012.  CREDIT: NOAA/NASA GOES Project. An image of Hurricane Sandy taken on October 28, 2012. CREDIT: NOAA/NASA GOES Project.

The evolution of the El Niño…

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