Tinkering with nonsense – Predictions as hard evidence


Boscastle.  Image: Wikipedia
Image: Wikipedia

Ignoring the evidence and running with the worst case scenario is according to the BBC ‘Hard evidence’ .

Oh dear.

Global warming will lead to a significant increase in extreme summer downpours in the UK, a study suggests. The Met Office and Newcastle University researchers say there could be five times the number of “extreme rainfall events” per hour, under extreme warming projections. This would cause “really severe” flash flooding in many parts of the UK, according to the scientists. However, they caution that this result is based on only one computer model
Dr Lizzie Kendon, the report’s lead author told BBC News.”It is the same one that is used for the weather forecasts on the BBC, so it is incredibly realistic and it represents these very intense convective-type storms that haven’t been captured before.”The researchers used both the low resolution and the high resolution models to examine the climate patterns that have occurred in recent years and to look ahead to what might happen at the end of this century. They assessed the period up to the year 2100 using the most high-end climate projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.”


Where, oh where to start?

8 thoughts on “Tinkering with nonsense – Predictions as hard evidence

    • Craig, the precursor of most evil is: ”Skeptics” pick on a small corner of the planet – when the discussion is ”GLOBAL” – the planet is a big place.
      if one follows the floods around the planet -> can create a case for higher rainfall and flooding on ”the WHOLE planet”
      If one follows droughts around the planet, can make case for ”dryer planet” – in reality: if some place, as for example Pakistan two years ago, where the floods were, then doesn’t mention it again, because are no floods – instead picks on another flooded place… THAT’S WHY THE WARMIST LOWE THE ”SKEPTICS, if the Skeptics didn’t exist – the Warmist would have invented them…
      it’s a great mistake, when commenting about floods, discussing only about a particular place AND NOT ADDING that: ”’simultaneously on other places was drought; CO2 is distributed everywhere around the planet – ”should have SAME influence”, IF co2 was influencing floods OR droughts!!!”

  1. anyone who has compared meto 5 day predictions with actual know its absolute junk. Anyone like MOD, Cobra etc who depend upon Meto junk models are blind more than 18hrs out.

    • Thanks for the comments.

      Oliver – Not sure about Dolard. The eruption of Mt. St. Helens was May but he quotes October. Something to look at anyway when I have time to see what the sun was doing at the time.

      Jaunty – For the past week only the incoming persistent rain, for the next 24hrs, has been forecast well the other days have changed quite significantly with each run. It’s worth reiterating that the 3mnth forecast for ‘planners’ is useless. They say it is experimental but as it is used by planners it’s quite worrying. Even more worrying is if there longer range forecasts based on ‘high end’ IPCC assumptions are being used by contingency planners – evidence suggests they have and still do.

      Tim Ball’s recent comment is quite pertinent

      The actual observed climate behavior of our planet continues to confound the very best efforts of the very best computer modelers and their models to replicate it.

      True climate denial is the real-world denial by mother earth of faulty ersatz computer representations and impersonations.


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