The Overconfidence Effect – Why have 95% when you can have 100%?

I wonder if IPCC climate scientists will be 110% confident?

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Image (annotations added) - Roy Spencer

“The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which someone’s subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than their objective accuracy, especially when confidence is relatively high”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Overconfidence_effect

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