Piers Corbyn – Met Office Winter Forecast is “Foolish babble from deluded charlatans and should be ignored”

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On the 24th October the UK Met Office released their 3 month forecast for ‘contingency planners’ covering the period November-January. Over the past week a stream of media articles appeared predicting a mild, wet and windy winter based upon the ‘form horse’. WeatherAction’s Piers Corbyn, is not impressed that we are effectively being flogged another dead horse.

“All the Met Office warnings of extreme winter or summer seasons since 2007 have been the opposite to what took place – recall the ‘BBQ’/fine summers which turned out as floods (2007, 2008, 2009, 2012) or the mild near-snow-free winters (in line with Co2 warmist catechism) for 2009-10 and 2010-11 which in reality had record cold and snow – and so the list goes on”, said Piers at WeatherAction’s London Bridge Office 12th Nov.

“The problem for the public is that because this cabal of charlatans (as far as long range forecasts go) are shovelled so much money from the public purse they feel a need to say something. In reality the public are being robbed to be misled and the recent abomniable announcement of £97Million on more Met Office super-computing means the public will be misled faster.

In terms of the actual MO forecast we must first be clear that whatever they say has no statistical merit or in their case they have a record of negative skill  (whereas WeatherAction has a proven success record and got all the extremes listed above correct for example).

For this particular winter the “milder (at least ’till New Year) wetter and windier than normal” prognosis has, we would estimate, only a 5% chance of being confirmed.

Weather Action is 95% confident that the MetO forecast will fail.
The winter extra money to [the] NHS will not be enough. Government reliance on #MetOffice misguided Co2-warmist-nonsense ‘Forecasts’ will cause more suffering and deaths which could be avoided if politicians had the guts to lance the boil of the #Co2Con .

One must ask is the Government using MetOffice forecasts [for contingency planners] to advise on how much extra cash the NHS needs this winter, and if so WHY?

We wish we had the public funding to release our forecasts for free.

The reasons why the Met Office long-range prognoses will continue to fail and the BBC will never have an honest informed scientific debate involving WeatherAction on the matter is:-

(i) They are tied to the CO2 warmist view of weather which can never accept solar activity drives it, so they are unable to even consider what is needed to put forecasts right in medium and long range.

(ii) Their back-data and models are warped by CO2 warmism and data fraud and cannot cope with the wild Jet Stream behaviour now dominating world circulation and which will continue for two more decades as the world goes further ino ‘Mini-Ice-Age’ type circulation. The wild Jet Stream behaviour is understood and was predicted by WeatherAction but is completly ‘out of the box’ as far as standard meteorology and Co2 delusional warmism is concerned.

(iii) The BBC will suppress honest debate on the matter because they are wedded to CO2 warmism and support for the Government and BigOil desire to have a high energy price economy which subsidises stupid money-wasting activity such as wind-farms.

Link: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/topics/weather/11220184/Met-Office-says-winter-will-be-wetter-and-windier-than-usual.html

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Craig writes:
Background

This is what the Met Office News blog had to say:

There are some headlines in the media today which suggest the UK faces another stormy start to winter before conditions turn cold into January, based on the latest Met Office three month outlook for contingency planners.

As we’ve discussed previously, the outlook is not like a normal weather forecast. It’s an experimental and complex outlook based on probabilities which is designed specifically for those who plan ahead for various contingencies based on possible likelihoods.

It assesses the likelihood of five different scenarios for both temperature and rainfall for the whole of the UK for the whole three months, based on the most probable prevailing weather patterns.

It’s a bit like the science-equivalent of factoring the odds on a horse race and like any horse race, it’s always possible the favourite won’t win.

This is why the outlook has to be used in the right context. So it’s useful for contingency planners, but not that useful for the public who want to know when we might see unsettled weather or which weekend looks good for an outdoor event.

This is a bit disingenuous as lay people will be looking to get an idea of the winter ahead not necessarily the fine details. Cold and dry or wet and mild winters affect the public, adversely so, so wanting to know the scenario to prepare for is quite a reasonable expectation.

It is also strange to use a betting analogy as any sane person would be demanding a stewards enquiry as the ‘favourite’ keeps being nobbled.

for 12 of the last 13 years, the Met’s temperature forecast has been too high. As Warren Buffett likes to say, forecasts tell you little about the future and a lot about the forecaster. Recently, the Met Office has decided that global warming means colder summers in Britain (due to North Atlantic sea temperatures pushing the jet stream south)…

http://www.spectator.co.uk/features/8959941/whats-wrong-with-the-met-office/

Last winter was another case in point. After failing to predict several cold dry winters the 2013/14 form horse was Cold and Dry. It never left the traps.

The Met Office’s ‘pitiful’ forecasts were under fire last night after it was revealed it told councils in November to expect ‘drier than usual’ conditions this winter.

In the worst weather prediction since Michael Fish reassured the nation in October 1987 that there was no hurricane on the way, forecasters said a large area of the country which includes the Somerset Levels – still under water after more than two months of flooding – would most likely see rainfall levels well below average.

Last night, it was confirmed the UK had instead suffered the wettest winter since records began.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2564358/Could-Met-Office-wrong-Just-floods-report-told-councils-Winter-drier-normal-especially-West-Country.html

The media have hyped this years ‘favourite’

UK Weather: Heavy rain and strong gales expected in ‘wettest winter since 1981’

Wet windy weather from the west Atlantic is expected to make its way over

This winter could be the wettest for more than 30 years, Met Office research has suggested.

The forecaster’s three-month outlook shows heavy rainfall and storms in the west Atlantic Ocean are predicted to move over to the UK via a strong jet stream of 100 metres per second.

The research, which covers today to January, warns that this winter is likely to be the wettest since 1981 after parts of the country were recently soaked by higher than average precipitation.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-weather-heavy-rain-and-strong-gales-expected-in-wettest-winter-since-1981-9863585.html

Britain could be facing one of the wettest winters ever warns Met Office amid claims conditions are right for series of powerful Atlantic storms

– After a mild October much of the country has been hit by heavy rain
– Met Office three-month outlook suggests more wet weather is to come
– Weather fronts coming from the Atlantic will bring stormy conditions to UK
– Temperatures are likely to remain mild, but could get colder in January 

The Met Office has warned that Britain could be facing one of its wettest winters ever, amid claims the conditions are perfect for a series of powerful Atlantic storms.

After a mild October, much of the country has been subjected to heavy rainfall in recent days, with some localised flooding, particularly in the south west  – a region among the worst hit by last year’s winter floods.

And the latest three-month outlook from the Met Office, which covers November to January, suggests that the next three months will be wetter than average, with weather fronts coming in from the Atlantic ocean, bringing stormy conditions.

To a degree this concurs with what the UK Met Office have said:

The outlook suggests the continuing risk of our weather coming in from the Atlantic, which brings unsettled conditions, during the first part of the three month period.

This is a fairly normal set up for the time of year, when we do expect unsettled weather, but the outlook does suggest that “spells of wet and windy weather may be more frequent than is typical”.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/11/09/the-met-offices-outlook-for-the-start-of-winter-2014/

But of course it’s not a forecast so don’t hold them to it.
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7 thoughts on “Piers Corbyn – Met Office Winter Forecast is “Foolish babble from deluded charlatans and should be ignored”

  1. Reblogged this on ASTROTAS and commented:
    Here’s a lecture by Wal’s very erudite but funny weather expert Piers Corbyn whom he mentioned at the meeting. So global warming not happening and i think i will be getting a rocket stove

  2. Britain braced for deadly freeze: Arctic blast so severe it could kill one person every seven minutes, charity warns, with temperatures set to plummet to -15C and yet MORE snow on the way
    Britain’s big freeze is set to continue for the rest of the weekend with temperatures plummeting well below zero
    Cold could kill one person every seven minutes with one million elderly people unable to heat homes, Age UK warns
    More snow is on the way this evening and tomorrow night after as much as six inches fell in parts of Cumbria
    Swathes of the south of England will be hit by ‘wintry showers’, with at least a dusting of snow forecast for tonight
    Temperatures will drop to -15C in Scotland and -10C in the Pennines on Sunday night, the Met Office says
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2914486/Arctic-blast-kill-one-person-seven-minutes-charity-warns-temperatures-set-plummet-15C-tomorrow-snow-way.html
    Reader’s comment: Once again Piers Corbyn was right when he forecasted this many months ago.

  3. Here some news from the UK, the country for which snow would be a thing of the past. Children just wouldn’t know what snow was, according to the climate fraud David Viner in 2000:
    http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/snowfalls-are-now-just-a-thing-of-the-past-724017.html
    Heavy snowfall in Britain leaves travellers stranded
    Motorists warned against non-essential travel, vehicles abandoned after becoming stuck
    A coachload of people travelling from Sheffield to London had to take refuge in a church after their bus became stuck in the snow before leaving the south Yorkshire city, passenger Chloe McIntosh told the BBC.
    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/heavy-snowfall-in-britain-leaves-travellers-stranded-1.2049590
    Gridlock in UK: Cars abandoned, passengers stranded after heavy snowfall
    http://www.thejournal.ie/uk-weather-snow-1853356-Dec2014/
    UK snowfall leaves travellers stranded
    Drivers abandon cars in Sheffield and coach passengers take refuge in church, as snow crosses northern and central areas
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/dec/27/uk-snowfall-leaves-travellers-stranded

  4. Bangladesh,Published: 12:00 A.M. Wednesday, December 24, 2014: Endangered vultures rescued.
    Tapan Kumar Dey, conservator (Wildlife) of the forest department, said the vultures had flown from Nepal, Bhutan and Himachal of India.
    “They came here to save themselves from the severe cold in those places but lost their energy for flying miles and fell on the ground,” he told this correspondent. The “weak and hungry” vultures were caught by the locals on Sunday and Monday, he said.
    After the recovery, the vultures were taken to the Social Forestry and Nursery Training Centre in Panchagarh, said Arshadul Haque, rang-officer of the forest department of the district.
    Veterinary Surgeon Abdus Sobhan said the vultures received primary treatment at the centre and were shifted to Bangabandhu Safari Park in Gazipur later to be released there.
    http://www.thedailystar.net/endangered-vultures-rescued-56789

    Bangladesh: published: 02:39 december 23, 2014
    “PM tells officials to be tough against criminals”.
    At the end of this news item we read these lines:
    “She said the government has started sending blankets for cold-stricken people of the northern district. She asked the officials to give importance to the people above 60 years and disabled persons while distributing winter clothes.”
    http://www.dhakatribune.com/politics/2014/dec/23/pm-tells-officials-be-tough-against-criminals
    Reader’s comment: So the people in the northern district of Bangladesh are getting blankets from their government to protect them from the cold. And hungry vultures are falling from the sky in Bangladesh, on their escape route from the even colder neighbouring countries. But the MSM do not consider this to be news, because it doesn’t fit in with the global warming hysteria.

  5. Algeria: Many villages in Bsatif isolated because of snow. Wednesday, December 10, 2014 and APS. Because of snowfall in the last 24 hours across the state of Setif in cuts and block traffic across many national roads and state and municipal as science on Wednesday from the National Gendarmerie.
    He said the same source that the National Road No. 75 link between the states of Setif and Bejaia been cut since Tuesday night in front of traffic on the level of the village “Tcoch” of the municipality of Aïn Abessa and the 300 meters along the National Road No. 9 among the states of Setif and Bejaia and specifically at the level of the village “pagan mud” at 300 meters. According to the National Gendarmerie that the National Road 74 Shatrah link Municipality appointed Elroy (North Setif) state Bejaia cut is also on the level of the village “Flaqh” and that at a distance of 2 km and specifically grave Mounarjat stationed along the way.
    And snow also caused the obstruction of traffic and the difficulty of the course through the many other national roads, as well as state and municipal users reopened before the start of the morning after the agents of the Directorate of Public Works intervention, accompanied by agents of the National Gendarmerie.
    And it comes with all of the National Road No. 77, the link between the municipality Eulma (Setif) and Mila Province Municipality Tachouda level and National Road 9 “b” on Shatrah link between the municipality Alauricia and sons of aggression in addition to their national road No. 77 link between Setif and Tower Bordj Bou and that the municipality Hrbel level and as well as the National Road No. 103 between the municipality and the state of Bougaa CABBA and specifically dizzy Alhoamch.
    http://www.elkhabar.com/ar/autres/dernieres_nouvelles/438198.html

    Algeria: Rain and snow isolated villages and cut off many roads northeast of the country.12/10/2014 – 14:00
    Major Hieoa Ayashi of the General Command of the National Gendarmerie
    In charge of public information at the level of the General Directorate of Civil Protection-or residuum
    Caused by rain and snow that fell during the last 24 hours to isolate entire villages and cutting off roads in many areas that have experienced loss significant quantities of snow and rain in the meantime, according to weather forecast constantly this atmospheric turbulence on the northern areas especially Central and East him to the homeland .
    And according to the interests of the national gendarmerie Algerian radio that several axes of the roads have been affected Ptsaqt private snow eastern regions of the country, particularly the mandates of Bouira and Bordj Bou Arreridj and Mila and Setif and Batna and Bejaia.
    Maj Hieoa Ayachi said of the General Command of the National Gendarmerie The axes affected by these States had been closed and some completely other part, adding that the bodies continue its efforts to open to traffic.
    The death of a person and the loss of three others following the recent weather fluctuations
    One person was killed and there are three others missing due to the recent weather fluctuations that touched the 13 states of central and eastern published by the outcome of Wednesday the interests of civil protection.
    http://www.radioalgerie.dz/news/ar/article/20141210/22257.html
    http://www.radioalgerie.dz/news/sites/default/files/styles/282×211/public/field/image/%D8%AB%D9%84%D9%88%D8%AC.jpg?itok=lB2IpOnX
    Algeria: Youtube video Dec 9, 2014:

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