On the 24th October the UK Met Office released their 3 month forecast for ‘contingency planners’ covering the period November-January. Over the past week a stream of media articles appeared predicting a mild, wet and windy winter based upon the ‘form horse’. WeatherAction’s Piers Corbyn, is not impressed that we are effectively being flogged another dead horse.
“All the Met Office warnings of extreme winter or summer seasons since 2007 have been the opposite to what took place – recall the ‘BBQ’/fine summers which turned out as floods (2007, 2008, 2009, 2012) or the mild near-snow-free winters (in line with Co2 warmist catechism) for 2009-10 and 2010-11 which in reality had record cold and snow – and so the list goes on”, said Piers at WeatherAction’s London Bridge Office 12th Nov.
“The problem for the public is that because this cabal of charlatans (as far as long range forecasts go) are shovelled so much money from the public purse they feel a need to say something. In reality the public are being robbed to be misled and the recent abomniable announcement of £97Million on more Met Office super-computing means the public will be misled faster.
In terms of the actual MO forecast we must first be clear that whatever they say has no statistical merit or in their case they have a record of negative skill (whereas WeatherAction has a proven success record and got all the extremes listed above correct for example).
For this particular winter the “milder (at least ’till New Year) wetter and windier than normal” prognosis has, we would estimate, only a 5% chance of being confirmed.
Weather Action is 95% confident that the MetO forecast will fail.
The winter extra money to [the] NHS will not be enough. Government reliance on #MetOffice misguided Co2-warmist-nonsense ‘Forecasts’ will cause more suffering and deaths which could be avoided if politicians had the guts to lance the boil of the #Co2Con .
One must ask is the Government using MetOffice forecasts [for contingency planners] to advise on how much extra cash the NHS needs this winter, and if so WHY?
We wish we had the public funding to release our forecasts for free.
The reasons why the Met Office long-range prognoses will continue to fail and the BBC will never have an honest informed scientific debate involving WeatherAction on the matter is:-
(i) They are tied to the CO2 warmist view of weather which can never accept solar activity drives it, so they are unable to even consider what is needed to put forecasts right in medium and long range.
(ii) Their back-data and models are warped by CO2 warmism and data fraud and cannot cope with the wild Jet Stream behaviour now dominating world circulation and which will continue for two more decades as the world goes further ino ‘Mini-Ice-Age’ type circulation. The wild Jet Stream behaviour is understood and was predicted by WeatherAction but is completly ‘out of the box’ as far as standard meteorology and Co2 delusional warmism is concerned.
(iii) The BBC will suppress honest debate on the matter because they are wedded to CO2 warmism and support for the Government and BigOil desire to have a high energy price economy which subsidises stupid money-wasting activity such as wind-farms.
This is what the Met Office News blog had to say:
There are some headlines in the media today which suggest the UK faces another stormy start to winter before conditions turn cold into January, based on the latest Met Office three month outlook for contingency planners.
As we’ve discussed previously, the outlook is not like a normal weather forecast. It’s an experimental and complex outlook based on probabilities which is designed specifically for those who plan ahead for various contingencies based on possible likelihoods.
It assesses the likelihood of five different scenarios for both temperature and rainfall for the whole of the UK for the whole three months, based on the most probable prevailing weather patterns.
It’s a bit like the science-equivalent of factoring the odds on a horse race and like any horse race, it’s always possible the favourite won’t win.
This is why the outlook has to be used in the right context. So it’s useful for contingency planners, but not that useful for the public who want to know when we might see unsettled weather or which weekend looks good for an outdoor event.
This is a bit disingenuous as lay people will be looking to get an idea of the winter ahead not necessarily the fine details. Cold and dry or wet and mild winters affect the public, adversely so, so wanting to know the scenario to prepare for is quite a reasonable expectation.
It is also strange to use a betting analogy as any sane person would be demanding a stewards enquiry as the ‘favourite’ keeps being nobbled.
for 12 of the last 13 years, the Met’s temperature forecast has been too high. As Warren Buffett likes to say, forecasts tell you little about the future and a lot about the forecaster. Recently, the Met Office has decided that global warming means colder summers in Britain (due to North Atlantic sea temperatures pushing the jet stream south)…
Last winter was another case in point. After failing to predict several cold dry winters the 2013/14 form horse was Cold and Dry. It never left the traps.
The Met Office’s ‘pitiful’ forecasts were under fire last night after it was revealed it told councils in November to expect ‘drier than usual’ conditions this winter.
In the worst weather prediction since Michael Fish reassured the nation in October 1987 that there was no hurricane on the way, forecasters said a large area of the country which includes the Somerset Levels – still under water after more than two months of flooding – would most likely see rainfall levels well below average.
Last night, it was confirmed the UK had instead suffered the wettest winter since records began.
The media have hyped this years ‘favourite’
UK Weather: Heavy rain and strong gales expected in ‘wettest winter since 1981’
Wet windy weather from the west Atlantic is expected to make its way over
This winter could be the wettest for more than 30 years, Met Office research has suggested.
The forecaster’s three-month outlook shows heavy rainfall and storms in the west Atlantic Ocean are predicted to move over to the UK via a strong jet stream of 100 metres per second.
The research, which covers today to January, warns that this winter is likely to be the wettest since 1981 after parts of the country were recently soaked by higher than average precipitation.
Britain could be facing one of the wettest winters ever warns Met Office amid claims conditions are right for series of powerful Atlantic storms
– After a mild October much of the country has been hit by heavy rain
– Met Office three-month outlook suggests more wet weather is to come
– Weather fronts coming from the Atlantic will bring stormy conditions to UK
– Temperatures are likely to remain mild, but could get colder in January
The Met Office has warned that Britain could be facing one of its wettest winters ever, amid claims the conditions are perfect for a series of powerful Atlantic storms.
After a mild October, much of the country has been subjected to heavy rainfall in recent days, with some localised flooding, particularly in the south west – a region among the worst hit by last year’s winter floods.
And the latest three-month outlook from the Met Office, which covers November to January, suggests that the next three months will be wetter than average, with weather fronts coming in from the Atlantic ocean, bringing stormy conditions.
To a degree this concurs with what the UK Met Office have said:
The outlook suggests the continuing risk of our weather coming in from the Atlantic, which brings unsettled conditions, during the first part of the three month period.
This is a fairly normal set up for the time of year, when we do expect unsettled weather, but the outlook does suggest that “spells of wet and windy weather may be more frequent than is typical”.