New Study Shows Extreme Rainfall Not Increasing In England & Wales

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

The Met Office frequently claim that rainfall is becoming more intense in the UK. This claim stems in part from the study by Matthew Perry, “A spatial analysis of trends in the UK climate since 1914 using gridded dataset”.

This was the paper I mentioned a few days ago, with regard to sunshine hours trends. Although temperature and rainfall data is available to 1910 and before, the section on extreme rainfall only uses data since 1961. (There are other studies, but they also start from 1961, for instance here).

From that, they produce these two tables:

image

image

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/q/h/UK_climate_trends.pdf

They conclude:

The increases in days of heavy rain and the greatest annual 5-days precipitation amounts suggest a tendency for an increasing likelihood for extreme heavy rainfall events.

As I have pointed out many times before, this choice of start date coincides with an unusually dry period…

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