An interesting exchange between Bob Webber and Piers from comments
The recent UK flood was a direct result of a sustained high TSI period in November, following a TSI high in October. I watched and recorded the water vapor and IR imagery of the clouds that brought that deluge, from when it spawned in mid-November just north of the equator near Mexico and the tropical Atlantic, just after TSI peaked Nov 15-17, and as it tracked towards the UK & Europe. The sun did it, again.
BOB! That is a very good point.
Our WeatherAction predicted sudden temperature (and airmass) change – ie a meeting of contrasting air masses around the date of the floods in UK implicitly set the scene and we should have warned of floods risk rather than just wet and windy.
See also my comms on main site [reproduced below]. In addition to that very long fetch all the way from Florida (WildJetStream /Mini Ice Age caused) moisture-laden mild air arriving in NW england we also had:-
=> The R4 period 1-5th
=> Geography of NW England and stationary weather fronts – which was also the case last time they had big floods.
=> Continuing stupid water run-off mismanagement – too much concrete and tarmac all over the place – little potential for lakes insead of run off (modern farming and land-grabs reduce lakes everywhere and channels watter into more rapid down flow ie into town. Not enough trees on land which are very good at holding water.
=> Previous flood defences not complete / not enough.
Instead of the deranged construction of Prayer Wheels – wind farms (so called ‘Climate MITIGATION’) that money should be spent on Climate ADAPTATION – to defend against real flood risk in places such as Cumbria.
***End of Update***
Comment from Piers
The conditions which led to the NW England extreme floods are – apart from local relief which helps weather fronts get stationary there as has happened before:
1. Large temperature contrasts between air masses which are rain bearing,
2. Extra solar factors which enhance rainfall.
The large temperature contrasts betwwen air masses are typical wild Jet stream conditions (Mini Ice Age conditions being one aspect of these) where the North-South motion of air are larger than normal making temperature contrasts bigger.
Extra CO2 under Warmist models have no effect on the Jet stream. The wild jet stream age we are now in was predicted by WeatherAction some years ago, is caused by on average continuing LOW solar activity and ensures there will be more Extreme Extremes at times.
The CO2 warmist models cause the OPPOSITE – namely the jet stream on average shifts further north and is shorter and less wavy – more benign and warmer.
1-5th was an ‘R4’ period – a Major solar factor enhancement of precipitation of these fortuitiosly meeting air massess in a particular flood prone region.
When the warmists make claims, which they will, just remind them they made them up.
Below, the graph about failure of CO2 ‘theory’ which Piers showed on Andrew Neil show and next one about the 0.5degC fraud add-on of temperatures in last decade which he mentioned:
In a comment at notalotofpeopleknowthat Stephen Wilde came to a similar conclusion [emphasis added];
It was orographic rainfall from a near stationary front draped across an upland region so nothing unusual synoptically.
Merseyside got nearly no rain at all for most of the relevant period because it lay to the lee of Snowdonia which received a lot.
The intensity would simply be due to the length of the wind track from the south west so that humidity was high before the hills forced the air upwards so that heavy rain could condense out.
The cause of the strong jetstream in which the warm moist air was embedded was colder than usual air forcing southwards from Greenland across the North Atlantic so one could say such events are a result of global cooling rather than global warming.
The UK certainly received more storms and heavier rains during the [Little Ice Age] as compared to the [Medieval Warm Period].
Note the similarity with the 2009 floods