Bill Illis Schools NOAA on El-Nino

The problem with Chicken Little’s, Cry Wolf’s and Rent Seekers is they are so tied to their deluded narrative they have no sense of proportion nor do they know when to reel in the B.S. Take NOAA’s response to the current El-Ninõ;

Was El Niño solely responsible for the record warm winter for the contiguous United States? No, but for some areas, like the northern U.S., the El Niño likely played a role. We know that other factors including climate patterns in the north Atlantic, Pacific, and tropics also influenced our weather during winter. Longer-term climate change was also a player, similar to Alice, the Brady family’s housekeeper—an ever-present force influencing outcomes to varying degrees.

One graph proves that record high year of 2015 and record months of 2016 are not AGW driven

Contrast this to Bill Illis’s far more sage approach:

Let’s look at the El Nino weather impact maps.

image
http://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/Images/ElNino-teleconnections.jpeg

Pretty accurate compared to what happened over the last 90 days don’t you think.

Let’s also look at the Out-going Long-wave Radiation map which gives you an indication where it was more cloudy [Blues and Reds] (and hence more precipitation) versus less cloudy [Brown and Yellows] (and hence less precipitation). Again, pretty accurate.

image
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/olr/olr.anom.90day.gif

The big Red Spot in the middle of the Pacific is really what makes the Earth warmer in an El Nino. All these thunderstorm clouds hold the extra heat from the central Pacific in. The heat from the El Nino does not get to escape to space, the clouds hold the heat in. It takes time for these thunderstorms to develop and then time for the general atmospheric circulation patterns to spread the extra heat around to the warmer than normal areas in the rest of the planet. This is actually the reason for the 3 month lag as well. The El Nino peaked in mid-November but the temperature impact did not peak until mid-February.

Incidentally, the Big Red Spot, at lower than normal OLR of 50 W/m2 is an astounding difference from normal (especially over 90 days). Nowhere else on the planet has numbers anything like this. 50 W/m2 should be compared to the forcing from doubling CO2 of just 3.7 W/m2 so a -50 W/m2 over such a big area is a big deal. This is how an El Nino impacts the weather.

The “Climate Change”, “Global Warming” and “unprecedented” memes are hackneyed, lazy excuses for those who have no understanding – nor a wish to understand – the majesty of our climate. They are going to be left floundering in the years to come and one can only hope subject to intense levels of scrutiny as we follow the money the have lavishly squandered on themselves, their cronies and their pet projects.

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4 thoughts on “Bill Illis Schools NOAA on El-Nino

  1. All well and good, but the heat was in the water under the surface, not all or just in the clouds above. If Bill was watching the clouds every day over the oceans in 2015 as I did, he’d have seen plenty of days with little to no clouds over the hot spot.

  2. Hi Craig. Yes there is, and it’s the most important thing to observe, the interface between incoming variable solar energy and outgoing heat and water vapor. Here’s my comment to Bill the first time he talked about the OLR here http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/03/12/february-2016-global-surface-landocean-and-lower-troposphere-temperature-anomaly-update/#comment-2165263

    One can readily see SST cooling since mid-Dec in the area of the OLR anomaly, and ocean-wide:

    Ocean Heat Content dropped last month to mostly below pre-2015 ENSO levels:

    Equatorial Upper 300m temperature Average anomaly based on 1981-2010 Climatology (deg C)
    YR MON 130E-80W 160E-80W 180W-100W
    2014 12 0.50 0.48 0.54
    2015 1 0.28 0.22 0.15
    2015 2 0.54 0.65 0.83
    2015 3 0.85 1.17 1.52
    2015 4 1.05 1.42 1.74
    2015 5 1.03 1.42 1.53
    2015 6 0.87 1.27 1.51
    2015 7 0.92 1.36 1.69
    2015 8 0.99 1.43 1.97
    2015 9 1.04 1.48 1.80
    2015 10 1.04 1.51 1.91
    2015 11 0.92 1.41 1.78
    2015 12 0.58 1.04 1.20
    2016 1 0.44 0.88 1.25
    2016 2 -0.03 0.31 0.57

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt

    Global SSTs are dropping now:

    2015/12 0.717
    2016/01 0.732
    2016/02 0.604

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/data/HadSST.3.1.1.0/diagnostics/HadSST.3.1.1.0_monthly_globe_ts.txt

    As are tropical SSTs:

    2015/12 1.053
    2016/01 1.129
    2016/02 0.878

    http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadsst3/data/HadSST.3.1.1.0/diagnostics/HadSST.3.1.1.0_monthly_tropics_ts.txt

    To answer your specific question about the solar influence, the sun caused the warmth in 2014/15/16.

    TSI built up to the highest peak level in Feb 2015 since 2002, building up heat since the solar minimum in 2008. The 2015 ENSO started the next month, March. From http://lasp.colorado.edu/data/sorce/tsi_data/daily/sorce_tsi_L3_c24h_latest.txt, as of 3/11:

    Year 1au TSI
    2015 1361.4321
    2014 1361.3966
    2013 1361.3587
    2016 1361.3064
    2012 1361.2413
    2011 1361.0752
    2003 1361.0292
    2004 1360.9192
    2010 1360.8027
    2005 1360.7518
    2006 1360.6735
    2007 1360.5710
    2009 1360.5565
    2008 1360.5382

    It all gets better the closer you look.

    • Thanks Bob. I have been loosely watching sfu over the past couple of years and had noted a sort of pumping action with ENSO – flux rises and so does the heat – but I wasn’t watching closely so it is just a casual observation I always meant to look into. Solar flux has dropped again concurrent with ENSO dropping. I recall your comments I’m the WA sure regarding the pumps of heat you had. I’m going to have a play with the figures 🙂

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