There are headlines in the media today suggesting the UK is in for a “hotter than usual summer”. This prediction seems to have been based on the latest Met Office three month outlook for contingency planners.
As we’ve discussed previously, the outlook is not a normal weather forecast. It’s an experimental and complex outlook based on probabilities and is designed specifically for those who plan ahead for various contingencies based on possible likelihoods. It assesses the likelihood of five different scenarios for both temperature and rainfall for the whole of the UK for the next three months, based on the more probable prevailing weather patterns.
It’s a bit like the science-equivalent of factoring the odds on a horse race and like any horse race; it’s always possible the favourite won’t win.
This is why the outlook has to be used in the right context. So it’s useful for contingency…
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