Mediterranean Summers? We’re Still Waiting!

After the winters of 09-10 and becoming disillusioned with the shrill Monty Pythonesque “it’s just a computer model flesh wound” I began changing my planting to hardy (frost resistant) non Mediterranean plants. The drought they said was the new norm ended in a deluge in 2012 a bit like their forecasts. The garden was a bog that year. The garden continues to do well – the forecasts have changed to floods but no doubt when the AMO flips and we become cyclically drier that’ll be back in fashion again… unlike Mediterranean gardens.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/4091068.stm

We are familiar with predictions of warmer and drier summers in Britain, particularly in southern England.

The UK Climate Projections 2009 thought that we could be seeing 30% less summer rainfall in southern parts even as early as the 2020s.

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http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/23997?emission=high

And much drier conditions by 2080.

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http://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk/media.jsp?mediaid=87893&filetype=pdf

The science of course is settled, which is why the Met Office’s Adam Scaife warned us in 2012:

“Some studies suggest that there is increased risk of wet, low pressure summers over the UK as the [Arctic] ice melts.”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-19496674

Mother Nature though seems to know better.

According to the England & Wales Precipitation Series, very little is changing.

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http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadukp/data/download.html

The driest summers were 1995, 1976, 1800, 1869 and 1818. No summer in the last decade has made it into the Top 30 dry summers.

There is, of course, no evidence that all of that “melting Arctic ice”…

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