Solar Update June 2017–the sun is slumping and headed even lower

Watts Up With That?

Solar cycle 24 has seen very low solar activity thus far, likely the lowest in 100 years.

Guest essay by David Archibald


Figure 1: F10.7 Flux 2014 – 2017

The F10.7 flux shows that over the last three and a half years the Sun has gone from solar maximum through a bounded decline to the current stage of the trail to minimum. Solar minimum is likely to be still three years away.


Figure 2: F10.7 Flux of Solar Cycles 19 to 24 aligned on month of minimum

Solar Cycle 24 is sitting at the lower bound of activity for solar cycles back to 1964, the start of Solar Cycle 19. From here to minimum though, it looks like Solar Cycle 24 will have much lower volatility than the solar cycles that preceded it.


Figure 3: Oulu Neutron Count 1964 – 2017

According to Svensmark’s theory, the neutron flux, with its…

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One thought on “Solar Update June 2017–the sun is slumping and headed even lower

  1. Have you seen “Heartbeat of the Sun from Principal Component Analysis and prediction of solar activity on a millenium timescale”, 97% accurate going back thousands if years, which predicts a new Maunder Minimum (little ice age) beginning in 13 years (2030):
    Here is the “executive” summary:
    Follow-up science paper
    Latest paper

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