Why do 100 year events happen so often?

The moreb places that are measured and the longer duration of weather records, the more there are to be broken. Added to this you then get new records such as bank holidays which are ready to break due to the short duration of that record.


By Paul Homewood


According to Mickey Mann, it’s because of climate change.

But back in 1990, scientists knew the truth, as this article from the BOM explains:

Analyses of data from rainfall gauges and the use of statistical theory enables one to estimate the probability that a particular rainfall depth will be equalled or exceeded at a particular place, within a particular time interval (duration), and over any given period of time. For example, the probability that 48.2 mm or more will fall in any 1-hour duration in a period of one year at the site of the Bureau’s official Melbourne raingauge. Curves representing these values are known as rainfall intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) curves. Rainfall IFD analyses are available for all locations in Australia.

The probability of a particular rainfall amount for a specified duration being equalled or exceeded in any 1 year period can be expressed as a percentage (the…

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