Hurricane expert Dr. Ryan Maue on Irma: ‘plausible track & worst case scenario’

Droughts often end in deluge…sadly it looks like the hurricane drought is going the same way.

Watts Up With That?

Models have lately been trending hurricane Irma to hit southern Florida, with a turn to the north, driving it through the center of the state as a Cat4 or Cat5 Hurricane. Hurricane expert, Dr. Ryan Maue notes:

“GFS 00z track shifted considerably to west. Regardless of intensity issues, still a plausible track & worst case scenario”

Indeed, it is a worst case scenario for Florida. Let us hope the model is wrong.

He adds:

Similar track from ECMWF 00z (w/input of aircraft recon data) as GFS. South Florida should closely monitor progress of Hurricane

And he adds most recently this morning:

Latest ensembles from U.S. GEFS model system continue trend west w/many solutions over south Florida & in eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Some other model output has much greater uncertainty. Dr. Roy Spencer notes on his Facebook page:

Latest GFS pushes Irma even farther west…

View original post 81 more words

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