Droughts often end in deluge…sadly it looks like the hurricane drought is going the same way.
Models have lately been trending hurricane Irma to hit southern Florida, with a turn to the north, driving it through the center of the state as a Cat4 or Cat5 Hurricane. Hurricane expert, Dr. Ryan Maue notes:
“GFS 00z track shifted considerably to west. Regardless of intensity issues, still a plausible track & worst case scenario”
Indeed, it is a worst case scenario for Florida. Let us hope the model is wrong.
Similar track from ECMWF 00z (w/input of aircraft recon data) as GFS. South Florida should closely monitor progress of Hurricane
And he adds most recently this morning:
Latest ensembles from U.S. GEFS model system continue trend west w/many solutions over south Florida & in eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Some other model output has much greater uncertainty. Dr. Roy Spencer notes on his Facebook page:
Latest GFS pushes Irma even farther west…
View original post 81 more words