Watch “Twelfth And Final Winter 2017/18 Update”

Interesting that November 1950 comes up, one Joe Bastardi has mentioned in the past few weeks.

A synopsis of the video can be found below.

The twelfth update beings with a final look at the Oceans and ENSO. La Nina has continued to strengthen across all regions of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. We now seem to be at weak or borderline moderate La Nina threshold. La Nina condition will continue through the remainder of 2017/18.

In the north Pacific Ocean SST’s (sea surface temperature anomalies) a very similar to last week although slight cooling has occurred in the north-eastern portion of the Pacific Ocean.In the Atlantic Ocean there has been no change. Much of the north Atlantic is warmer than average and overall the SST’s will probably be warmer for this Winter than any for any Winter back to 2013/14.We have particularly warm SST’s close to the eastern coast of America. Looking through the archives back to 1982 to we can see that this isn’t an especially unusual occurrence with many Winters (both mild and cold UK winters) showing warmer than average SST’s close to the east coast of America. – Of more importance is that we don’t have a tripole (three distinct bands of warm over cool over warm through the north Atlantic) this year and this could negate from a negative NAO to some degree.Of particular interest is the SST profile in the Atlantic during November 1995 – As Winter 95/96 has been showing up a lot within our analogues packages this year. We can see that November 1995 had a developing tripole which was already starting to set up the negative NAO (cold Winter) pattern that dominated during 95/96. This isn’t the case in November 2017 and so this is something we’ll have to consider when we bring all the analogues together for next weeks Winter 17/18 forecast.The 2017 Atlantic Hurricane season appears to be over! Our total numbers of depressions, storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is unchanged on last week. The 2017 hurricane season has been a “hyperactive” season and we explored in earlier updates what this could mean.Scandinavian and Russian snow cover has expanded over the past week. Most of Scandinavia and much of western Russia is now snow covered as you would expect by late November.Solar activity continues to be at very low levels. The GWV solar tracker shows shows that the trend lines are continuing to decline and the total number of sunspots has been very low for the past two weeks (with several “spotless” days) – Speculatively we might be entering solar minimum… Although one final spike in sunspots can’t be ruled out in the next few weeks and months.Finally we look at November 2017’s weather pattern. We see a very unusual 500z height anomaly this month with some (limited) blocking over Greenland but we also have a rather unsettled signal.Through exhaustive reanalysis we have established that the pattern this November has been very unusual with not clear match (so far) to any past year back to 1850 – We can see that a northern blocking signal in November can be a significant “pointer” to a cold Winter (as often the building blocks for that cold Winter will begin in November) so we’ll be looking over the next few days to see whether the blocking signal for November 2017 is strengthened in the closing days – If it does this could be an indicator for a cold/blocked Winter. We’ll begin the Winter 2017/18 Forecast with November 2017’s final reanalysis chart

2 thoughts on “Watch “Twelfth And Final Winter 2017/18 Update”

  1. I would appreciate very much to have a short abstract related to the 1 hour video. It is a bit hard to watch a full hour before deciding if the video is really meaningful to me. Actually, I scipped all of them after a while because I was waiting all too long for a clearcut result and didn’t know, when it would come.

    • Hi Etzel, I’ve put a few words from Gav’s blog on here which I hope help. It won’t give you a clearcut result, weather rarely is so simple, but it gives a flavour of the season ahead and the state of many drivers.

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