@Piers_Corbyn: Major Impacts as Mini Ice Age Circulation Pattern Due to Bite Britain and Europe

Piers has given a taste of what is to come early this winter. The Daily Express has a rather alarming headline about a Wall of Snow to hit the UK, however that is the headline writers not necessarily the content nor what Piers himself has said.

Below are the actual comments from WeatherActions Piers Corbyn quoted in The Express;

Piers Corbyn, forecaster for WeatherAction, said: “An active low-pressure system will move in from the northwest next week signalling a change to much colder conditions.

“We are expecting this to bring some early winter weather with heavy snow and very cold winds in the north and a risk of wintery showers even across southern Britain.

“This pattern is likely to hold out through the rest of the month and into December with a risk of blizzards in Scotland and the north and widespread snow showers.

“There will be a risk of travel disruption through this period with volatile, stormy weather combined with the cold brining a risk of winter thunderstorms and outbreaks of thunder snow.”

Fluctuating solar activity driving a spate of storms on the surface of the sun will trigger the early cold snap, he said.

It will cause the jet stream to twist and sweep southwards pulling a plume of freezing air in from the North Pole.

Solar activity and jet stream forecasts suggest a pattern of cold similar to the historic Mini Ice Age which occurred during the mid-17th century.

The period otherwise known as the Little Ice Age gripped Europe and North America and saw Britons hold frost fairs on the frozen River Thames.

“What we are looking at is a pattern of circulation similar to that which was observed during the mini ice-age,” Mr Corbyn said.

“This will bring a displaced Polar vortex down across northern Europe during the second half of November allowing very cold air from the North Pole to sink across the UK.

“This will have some major impacts in Britain, Ireland and Europe including the risk of blizzards, widespread snow and sustained bitter cold winds into the start of next month.

“Part of the reason for this again is the effect of solar activity on the jet stream causing it to meander and twist southwards allowing a cold airflow from the north to establish.”

Britain’s weather will start to turn colder during the last 10 days of November, according to UK weather models.

Read the full article here

9 thoughts on “@Piers_Corbyn: Major Impacts as Mini Ice Age Circulation Pattern Due to Bite Britain and Europe

  1. The synoptic pattern coming is spot on with his Nov forecast, just that the temps won’t be bitter cold for Nov 30….but deep Low Pressures moving W to E over Scotland. pM air masses rarely bring extreme cold….

    • Hi Fred. Thanks for commenting. Would have replied earlier but WordPress is not already great at notifications. I agree synoptically it was right and even the downturn this weekend for month end seems about right although degree no so. I did ponder above about the airflow being cut off by a northern arm of the jet. Could have been interesting how that could have developed things considering the cold plunge the end of October. IIRC we had a PM airmass ~11 Dec last year that wasn’t bad but the extra couple of weeks make a huge difference. At least lots of cold to be tapped into… at some point but much waxing and waning yet to pass before ‘connection’

  2. Hello. Just been on Gavs weather vids and he is saying that according to the models we are about to go into an Atlantic pattern with temperatures in double figures later this weekending the 30 November. It seems somewhat at odds with what I have just read from Piers and the Daily Express of course.
    Has anybody any comments on this?
    Also the Perspecta Weather comment earlier on this year which spoke of the weather patterns being similar to the 62-63 winter, I had just left school, I remember it well…..cold! Any thoughts on this?

    If any of you reply please be aware that I am a semi retired Bricklayer and NOT a scientist, just interested in the weather.

    • Hi Bryan. I’ve not seen the Dec forecast as yet so not sure if Piers has predicted the Atlantic energy we see coming although it does contrast with what was expected for late Nov. We did see the cold and snow (Isle of Wight and a few other places have seen snow the past few days) but not at the magnitude expected. I’m sure Piers will let us know his thoughts on the days ahead. He’s not infallible but he does pick up jetstream movements way ahead of time. Sometimes he’s bang on, other times he’s quite close to the mark. Usually a forecast of 8 periods has 6 right and I wouldn’t be surprised if the outlook shifts suddenly – years of watching models has taught me that 😂 Often these arise following lunar and solar action. However an Atlantic influenced period seems cert into next week although it may ease to give grey yuck. I just hope on a personal level we get some clear skies as fog and frost are something for the eye to behold. Grey ledden skies not so much.

      As for 62/3 I see similarities but I don’t see the same winter. Like that old saying of history not repeating but it does rhyme. I posted this last night over on the WeatherAction.com comments:

      “As an example Dec 62 had the worst fog since the Great Smog of 1952 at the start. What followed were gales, deep depressions & heavy rain with some snow (Scot+East Anglia as depressions pulled a northerly airstream). By Xmas a very different picture emerged. Nov 1978 had a “mild first three weeks; cold last week, with snow” the December? “Heavy rain and gales at times, snowy and very cold at end of month.” I see flavours of that playing out at the moment. We are not zonal. The ensembles show waxing & warning although nothing particularly cold (that does not mean no snow btw).”

      Snow always possible on a northern airstream with a passing low.

      That’s just my personal take. Be interesting what Piers thinks lies ahead. Jan may be of particular note.

      • As an example of how Piers can often be close to the mark. He said in the Express piece about

        the jet stream to twist and sweep southwards pulling a plume of freezing air in from the North Pole.
        Well we have a jet that swept South only a norther branch emerged so no Arctic air to pull in:

      • Good Morning,

        Thank you for your kind and interesting reply

        We shall see what transpires in the coming days

        The new post by Ben Davidson also very interesting

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