So little change after all that time and the trillions spent 🤔
FROM SCHNEIDER 1975
FIGURE 1: CONSTRAINED & UNCONSTRAINED ECS ESTIMATES IN THE LITERATURE
FIGURE 2: ECS ESTIMATES OUTSIDE CHARNEY INTERVAL
- Figure 1 is a graphical representation of a large number of climate sensitivity values from the literature 1970-2018, both purely empirical (unconstrained) and constrained by climate models. The Charney 1979 estimate of ECS=3 with 90% confidence interval of ECS=[1.5, 4.5] is sanctioned by the IPCC and widely accepted in climate science. It is used here to compare all values in Figure 1 against this interval.
- Figure 2 is a comparison of all the reported ECS values in Figure 1 against the Charney/IPCC interval ECS=[1.5, 4.5]. In the GT section of Figure 2 we find that in the full sample 1963-2018, only 20% of the ECS values shown in Figure 1 were greater than the the Charney interval ECS=[1.5, 4.5]. This rate is somewhat lower in…
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