I do not see these lavishly funded modeling centers telling their funders that they goofed and the last five years work just didn’t work out, so sorry. Most of these funders are national governments which might react negatively to such an admission.
Interestingly the Science article says the insanely scary and wrong near-term warming is due to a deep error that has been in the models during previous CMIPs. The CMIP6 changes just brought it to the surface, as it were. This casts deep doubt on the prior CMIP results as well.
Governments will only react badly to such an admission, especially regarding previous iterations of the CHIMP models, because that would undermines the whole ponzi scheme.
I get the feeling lies of omission will rule, but this admission by serial manure smearer Gavin is a surprise nonetheless 🤔
By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~
Looks like the climate modeling community may have a civil war on its hands. Some serious players are rejecting the new hot models, but probably not their owners. If so we will see modeler against modeler. Be still my heart.
The first loud public shot has been fired by the prestigious journal Science (actually it is more of a magazine but never mind). Science is devoutly alarmist but they reject the hot models in the strongest possible terms (in a lengthy article that is not paywalled).
Their blunt article title is “U.N. climate panel confronts implausibly hot forecasts of future warming“. When it comes to science, “implausibly hot” is very strong language. Scientific language is normally extremely polite. (The U.N. climate panel is of course the IPCC.)
But it gets even stronger in the text. Here we find NASA’s Gavin Schmidt, arguably…
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