Flogging the Dead Parrot of Climate Attribution

A few years back I wrote a rather joking post providing a script for, then Met Office’s chief scientist, Dame Julia Slingo.

The recent [insert] weather is what we’d expect to see with [climate change]/[global warming]. We are loading the dice for more [insert] winters.

All the evidence suggests [insert] are linked to [climate change]/[global warming].

Met Office’s Julia Slingo gets ready for winter

Paul Homewood was kind enough to make it a post over at his blog at the time. But as the saying goes ‘what goes around, comes around’, so even though Dame Julia no longer graces us with her attribution soundbites we now have the new and improved soundbite queen, Fredi Otto. According to the fawning and barf-inducing coverage, Fredi ‘cuts a striking figure‘ and is an all-round media starlet of weather attribution. That she is easier on the eyes than the old*, desperately unhip Dame Julia, no doubt suits a media that is still all too happy to discard women once they reach menopause. I mean kids, panicked by the young and ultra-hip Communist Doom Goblin Greta, just won’t relate to fogies and they are probably still traumatised from killing granny. We need young and hip icons wearing scarves around their necks, not heads!

Scarf on head = ungood! Image Josh
Neck scarf + far-off stare = doubleplusgood

Nevermind the rather Monty Pythonesque sounding ‘Rapid Reaction Force of Climate Attribution’ or that Climate Attribution is rather like a human centipede.

Imperial’s Climate Modelling Unit

For Fredi just happens to work at Imperial College. It is quite likely that she is hoping to snatch the crown of the World’s Dodgiest Modeller for The Science™️, taking that prodigious mantle off of her fellow Imperial colleague, Professor Nial ‘Pantsdown’ Ferguson of that dodgy Covid model fame. (What is about Imperial and their symbiosis with models that just so happen to support an agenda that pushes lockdowns?) Jaime Jessop has been doing a sterling job over at her Substack of covering our newly crowned Queen Fredi and her narcissistic need to insert herself into weather events. It was there I read Fredi’s latest climate attribution copypasta.

The record-breaking heat across Europe over the new year was made more likely to happen by human-caused climate change, just as climate change is now making every heatwave more likely and hotter,” Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, said.

For anyone at least semi-conscious of the never-ending excuses and with a memory lasting barely more than a nanosecond, a distant echo should be ringing in their head – even with the kaleidoscope of fear porn to distract you these past few years. The script is almost identikit to Julia Slingo’s all those years ago. As indeed is the excuse of a wavy Jetstream which goes waaaaaaaay back before Fredi was even born and has been quite a crowd favourite over recent years despite the repeated plagiarism that the markers should have picked up on by now.

You never saw this. It doesn’t exist. Winston has unpersoned this story.

The penchant for so-called Climate Scientists, seems to be to repeat mantras as Jaime highlights later in her article, highlighting this old trope.

When these waves get bigger and elongated, they move slowly and sometimes can become stationary. This is when a high-pressure system gets stuck and leads to the occurrence of a heat dome.

Although heat domes are likely to have always existed, researchers say that climate change may be making them more intense and longer. They suggest with the rising temperatures, it is expected that the jet stream will become more wavy and will have larger deviations, causing more frequent extreme heat events.

But the problem is this theory has been debonked by the actual data of what the Jetstream is actually doing.

Bringing this discussion up to date using the latest observations, we note that the 1990–2005 tendency toward a weaker jet stream and negative NAO has reversed in recent years. The last decade was dominated by a stronger jet stream and a more positive NAO, with the 11-year period from 2010 to 2020 featuring the strongest jet of any 11-year period over the past 70 years. The relatively weak winter North Atlantic jet observed in the 2000s, which motivated the debate on the influence of the Arctic, was not particularly unusual in the longer context.”

Blackport and Fyfe 2022

In old parlance, you could call it flogging a dead horse (that’s being dragged to the knackers yard) but its actually more like flogging a dead parrot.

I feel therefore it’s only fair that I save Fredi the effort and write a script for her.

The record-breaking [insert weather] across Europe was made more likely to happen by human-caused climate change, just as climate change is now making every [insert weather] more likely and [insert weather with an 'er' at the end]," Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, said.
The evidence for this quote is ‘weak and problematic’ but probably, might and could be likely have more substance than an attribution study

But you know I’m not a Climate Scientist, so I’m not allowed to point out what lies in front of us despite it honking out the room.


* This doesn’t seem to affect “whispery-voiced gorilla-hugging Malthusian, slayer of walruses” old men who are veritable National Treasures. Not that that’s saying much.


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