The Chance of Storms Just Doubled

Québec [1989] was once thought to be a 100 year storm. Extreme value statistics suggest a different answer. “It’s more like 45 years,” says Love.

😵

Spaceweather.com

April 8, 2021: If you think you are safe from geomagnetic storms, think again. A new study just published in the journal Space Weather finds that powerful storms may be twice as likely as previously thought.

Jeffrey Love of the US Geological Survey, who authored the study, analyzed Earth’s strongest geomagnetic storms since the early 1900s. Previous studies looked back only to the 1950s. The extra data led to a surprise:

“A storm as intense as, say, the Québec Blackout of 1989 is predicted to occur, on average, about every four solar cycles. This is twice as often as estimated using only the traditional shorter dataset,” says Love.

Above: The data Love used in his extreme value analysis. Red and blue circles denote the two strongest storms in each solar cycle. Dst is a measure of geomagnetic activity that can be estimated from old magnetogram chart recordings.

A study like…

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France to declare agricultural ‘disaster’ over spring frost

France could do with some of that global heating we keep hearing about.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

FRANCE-AGRICULTURE-WEATHER-VINEYARD A winegrower lights anti-frost candles in a French vineyard [image credit: thelocal.fr] Government policy is to try and make the climate cooler. Now read on.
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The French government is to declare an agricultural disaster over an unusual early spring frost that has damaged crops and vines across the country, the agriculture minister said. Phys.org reporting.

Julien Denormandie told Franceinfo radio late Thursday that the cold snap had been “particularly difficult” for the sector with “significant losses” registered.

“We are completely mobilised so that the accompanying measures can be put in place as quickly as possible,” he said.

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New study ties solar variability to the onset of decadal La Niña events

From the conclusion:

We have tried to avoid discussion of causation, which, due to its controversial nature could lead to dismissal of the empirical relationship, and we want open a broader scientific discussion of solar coupling to the Earth and its environment. Nevertheless, independent of the exact coupling mechanisms, the question must be asked, why has the pattern occurred and reoccurred regularly for the past five solar cycles, or 60 years? We have only a few months at most to wait to see if this Terminator‐ENSO relation continues at the onset of the coming solar cycle 25. Should this next terminator be associated with a swing to La Niña then we must seriously consider the capability of coupled global terrestrial modeling efforts to capture “step‐function” events, and assess how complex the Sun‐Earth connection is, with particular attention to the relationship between incoming cosmic rays and clouds and precipitation over our oceans.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020EA001223

Jaime Jessop pulled out some more detail from the study:

What’s interesting is that the authors identify the past several decades as a ‘default El Nino like state’ when cloud cover in the Western Pacific has been depleted, coincident with a weakened Pacific Walker circulation and strengthened Brewer-Dobson circulation. During this period, they argue that ENSO has been uniquely sensitive to variations in solar activity:

Thus, over the past several decades the cloud pattern in the western Pacific has adopted an almost El Niño‐like default state, consistent with an observed eastward shift in precipitation in the tropical Pacific and weakening of the Walker circulation over the last century (Deser et al., 2004; Vecchi & Soden, 2007a), and which has been tied, via simple thermodynamics, to a warmer atmosphere.

Thus, it is entirely plausible that since changes in the (upper) atmosphere brought on by a strengthened Brewer‐Dobson circulation, weakened Pacific Walker circulation, and less cloudy Western Pacific, enables the relatively constant terminator‐driven changes to have sufficient “impact” to flip the system from El Niño to La Niña, independent of the actual mechanism that couples solar changes to clouds and ENSO.

The 2020 termination of the last Hale cycle, marked by the end of SC24 and beginning of SC25 is, according to Valentina Zharkhova, the beginning of a Maunder-like Minimum which will last from 2020-2053. If, as she suggests, global surface temperatures decline during this period, then we might expect the relationship between Terminator events and the switch from El Nino to La Nina to become less pronounced. The current progression of the Pacific to a La Nina may in fact be the beginning of a phase change from an ‘El Nino-like default state’ to a La Nina-like default state where, ironically, solar activity has less of an influence on central Pacific ocean surface temperatures.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

solar1 Solar activity [image credit: NASA]

What drives the weather can drive the climate. In this case the chances of non-correlation are said to be extremely low.

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A new study shows a correlation between the end of solar cycles and a switch from El Nino to La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean, suggesting that solar variability can drive seasonal weather variability on Earth, Phys.org reports.

If the connection outlined in the journal Earth and Space Science holds up, it could significantly improve the predictability of the largest El Nino and La Nina events, which have a number of seasonal climate effects over land.

For example, the southern United States tends to be warmer and drier during a La Nina, while the northern U.S. tends to be colder and wetter.

“Energy from the Sun is the major driver of our entire Earth system and makes life on Earth possible,”…

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Increasing Hurricane Frequency Due To Better Observation, Not Climate Change–BBC

Joe Biden has healed the planet!

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on 1 June. But over the past six years, significant storms have been forming earlier than this. So does the hurricane season need to start earlier – and is climate change to blame?

At a regional meeting of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) this week, meteorologists and officials will be discussing a possible change to how the hurricane season is defined.

“The 2020 hurricane season was one of the most challenging in the 40-year history of [the] WMO’s Tropical Cyclone Programme,” says WMO Secretary-General Prof Petteri Taalas.

“The record number of hurricanes combined with Covid-19 to create, literally, the perfect storm.”

The hurricane season has officially started on the 1 June since the mid-1960s, when hurricane reconnaissance planes would start routine trips into the Atlantic to spot storm development.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active on record with…

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A Closer Look at What Happened in Texas During the Deep Freeze:

These days, it seems like no matter what the weather does, someone makes an attempt to blame it on man-made climate change. This has become a commonplace in the mainstream news media, particularly within the last five years, and has disturbingly been perpetuated by a few atmospheric scientists with large public platforms. Scientists who have large social media followings play a very important role in science communication; it’s their job to communicate science as clearly and as effectively as possible, especially when there are large discrepancies between the headlines journalists spin up and what peer-reviewed papers actually suggest. Unfortunately, many scientists refuse to call out misinformation in the media simply because it hurts the cause for climate action. In other words, many prominent scientific voices are just political activists hiding behind the mask of a competent scientist.
[…]
Politics thoroughly corrupted climate science over 30 years ago, but it’s now beginning to corrupt energy policy and engineering, which is a far greater problem than the former. Billionaires own large media corporations, which means they control the flow of information. Whoever controls information controls society. Journalists will do anything to make a good headline that suits the agenda. They aren’t interested in truth, if they were, they’d allow opposing voices to be heard

A very comprehensive and balanced article by Chris Martz…if only the media allowed this kind of discussion, as they once did, we wouldn’t be suffering extraordinary levels of weather ignorance – which is precisely what allows political deviants to continue their machinations.

Chris Martz

“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”
— Benjamin Franklin

Meteorological Analysis

Three weeks ago, a major cold snap and series of winter storms enveloped the southern plains and parts of the Mississippi River Valley, sending temperatures below zero as far south as central Texas. According to NOAANCEI, a total of 8,632 daily record low temperatures — including both maximums and minimums — were set or tied from February 10-20, as opposed to only 262 daily warm records.¹ Additionally, a whopping 693 monthly record lows were set, 199 of which were all-time record lows. According to the NOAA Weather Prediction Center, over 30% of all of the official weather stations in the United States set at least record low maximum temperatures between February 14 and 16. Without a doubt, this was the coldest 10-day period that this part of the country had experienced in over…

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Iceland: could a volcanic period be ahead?

Whilst we can’t vouch for weather (which will be blamed for any cooling) some spectacular sunsets lie ahead if indeed Iceland’s volcanoes are once again awakening.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Lava fields of the Reykjanes Peninsula [image credit: Vincent van Zeijst @ Wikipedia]
24th February: ‘Southwestern Iceland was rocked by a series of earthquakes’, reported DW.com. ‘Experts say shocks from the quake, which registered 5.7 in magnitude, sparked increased volcanic activity, triggering a number of aftershocks registering over 4.0 for hours after the initial quake hit.

“It’s an intense activity zone, we are all well aware of that but I’ve never experienced or felt so many strong earthquakes in such a short period of time. It’s unusual,” as the Icelandic Meteorological Office’s (IMO) earthquake hazards coordinator Kristin Jonsdottir told Icelandic public broadcaster RUV.’

The article below appeared five days ago.
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“If an eruption occurs, it would likely mark the beginning of such a [volcanic] period – lasting a few centuries, I believe,” states Magnús Á. Sigurgeirsson, geologist at ÍSOR Iceland GeoSurvey – a consulting and research…

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Canceling the AMO

Wow. In one fell swoop, the pesky problems of the ‘grand hiatus’ in the mid 20th century, debates over the attribution of 20th century warming and the role of multidecadal internal variability, and the difficulty of attributing the recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity to AGW, all go away. Brilliant! Almost as ‘brilliant’ as the Hockey Stick.

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

Conclusion from Michael Mann’s new paper:  “We conclude that there is no compelling evidence for internal multidecadal oscillations in the climate system.”

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Iceland Volcano Awakens for First Time Since Middle Ages

Iceland has been pretty quiet for the past decade bar Bardarbunga stinking things up a bit in 2014 but that does seem to be about to change. March-April is usually the time Icelandic volcanoes awaken as we saw with the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April 2010 (similar solar cycle period) which affected air traffic, although … Continue reading Iceland Volcano Awakens for First Time Since Middle Ages

What if … A Perfect CME Hit Earth?

😳

Spaceweather.com

Jan. 21, 2021: You’ve heard of a “perfect storm.” But what about a perfect solar storm? A new study just published in the research journal Space Weather considers what might happen if a worst-case coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth. Spoiler alert: You might need a backup generator.

For years, researchers have been wondering, what’s the worst the sun could do? In 2014, Bruce Tsurutani (JPL) and Gurbax Lakhina (Indian Institute of Geomagnetism) introduced the “Perfect CME.” It would be fast, leaving the sun around 3,000 km/s, and aimed directly at Earth. Moreover, it would follow another CME, which would clear the path in front of it, allowing the storm cloud to hit Earth with maximum force.

None of this is fantasy. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has observed CMEs leaving the sun at speeds up to 3,000 km/s. And there are many documented cases of…

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The Earth has been spinning faster lately

In fact it’s unprecedented, in recent history at least. But 2021 is predicted to be even shorter. – – – Scientists around the world have noted that the Earth has been spinning on its axis faster lately—the fastest ever recorded, says Phys.org. Several scientists have spoken to the press about the unusual phenomenon, with some … Continue reading The Earth has been spinning faster lately

Harsh Winter Can Bring Illness, Death to Afghan Kids

h/t Argiris Diamantis Friday January 01, 2021 Kabul (BNA) More than 300,000 children in war-ravaged Afghanistan face freezing winter conditions that can lead to illness and death without proper winter clothing and heating, a humanitarian organization said Thursday. The ongoing military conflict in Afghanistan has destroyed many homes and forced thousands of children to shelter … Continue reading Harsh Winter Can Bring Illness, Death to Afghan Kids

Watch @Adapt2030 “Signs Earth’s Climate Is Starting to Fall Out”

Excusing the hyperbolic headline, Dave does highlight some extreme weather systems popping up across the northern hemisphere...and winter has really only just begun. https://youtu.be/hIz6Pc_z-Q8

Noctilucent Clouds are Missing

The polar vortex over Antarctica continues unabated whilst the one over the Arctic is at record low levels about to undergo a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW).

We do live in interesting times.

Spaceweather.com

Dec. 28, 2020: Something strange is happening 50 miles above Antarctica. Or rather, not happening. Noctilucent clouds (NLCs), which normally blanket the frozen continent in December, are almost completely missing. These images from NASA’s AIM spacecraft compare Christmas Eve 2019 with Christmas Eve 2020:

“The comparison really is astounding,” says Cora Randall of the University of Colorado’s Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics. “Noctilucent cloud frequencies are close to zero this year.”

NLCs are Earth’s highest clouds. They form when summertime wisps of water vapor rise up from the poles to the edge of space. Water crystallizing around specks of meteor dust 83 km (~50 miles) above Earth’s surface creates beautiful electric-blue structures, typically visible from November to February in the south, and May to August in the north.

A crucial point: Noctilucent clouds form during summer. And that’s the problem. Although summer officially started in Antarctica one week…

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Patrick Wood: Technocracy Rising

From 2015 but more pertinent than ever since the rise of the China virus and global lockdown mandates emanating from certain echelons of academia spinning dodgy algorithms that somehow, completely by chance of course, have the ear of the W.H.O. and world governance 🤔

In the heat of the Great Depression during the 1930s, prominent scientists and engineers proposed a utopian energy-based economic system called Technocracy that would be run by those same scientists and engineers instead of elected politicians.

Although this radical movement lost momentum by 1940, it regained status when it was conceptually adopted by the elitist Trilateral Commission (co-founded by Zbigniew Brzezinski and David Rockefeller) in 1973 to be become its so-called “New International Economic Order.”

In the ensuing 41 years, the modern expression of Technocracy and the New International Economic Order is clearly seen in global programs such as Agenda 21, Sustainable Development, Green Economy, Councils of Governments, Smart Growth, Smart Grid, Total Awareness surveillance initiatives and more.

MalagaBay

Patrick Wood - Technocracy Rising

Patrick Wood is an author and lecturer who has studied Gobalization since the 1970s.

Patrick Wood is an author and lecturer who has studied elite globalization policies since the late 1970’s, when he partnered with the late Antony C. Sutton to co-author Trilaterals Over Washington, Volumes I and II.

He remains a leading expert on the elitist Trilateral Commission, their policies and achievements in creating their self-proclaimed “New International Economic Order.”

An economist by education, a financial analyst and writer by profession and an American Constitutionalist by choice, Wood maintains a Biblical world view and has deep historical insights into the modern attacks on sovereignty, property rights and personal freedom.

Such attacks are epitomized by the implementation of U.N. policies such as Agenda 21, Sustainable Development, Smart Growth and in education, the widespread adoption of Common Core State Standards.

Wood is a frequent speaker and guest on radio shows around…

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No Snow? More like No Soul

Apparently the Met Office are pushing a new report that, according to their latest totally accurate projections which are so much better than those they churned out over a decade ago.suggests by the 2040s most of southern England could no longer see sub-zero days. By the 2060s only high ground and northern Scotland are still … Continue reading No Snow? More like No Soul

“From Day one, Global Warming and Global Cooling is a made up social engineering programme” @JamesDelingpole speaks to Patrick M Wood about the Great Reset

"There's only been one solution they ever offered to fix the problem and that was sustainable development." How the Climate Agenda is the same as the COVID19 agenda and the Great Reset. We must speak now and say NO https://youtu.be/EtuIWPl7of0

Record Heat In California Claims Not Supported By Data

Fraud is endemic, one could say baked into the system, in Cali.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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In the midst of the state’s most destructive wildfire season, California shattered temperature records in August, September and October.

All three months were the state’s warmest on record, according to a new report by UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain.

“The long-term warming trend during the peak of fire season in California has been especially pronounced,” Swain said on Twitter, “and 2020 really puts an exclamation point on that.”

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-07/california-shatters-fall-temperature-records

The report linked gives this map showing that the £record heat” was principally along the coast in October:

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