In his latest video David DuByne has picked up on an article from last November which includes quotes from WeatherAction’s Piers Corbyn.
It’s not clear from the article if David Hathaway is referring to a Grand Solar Minimum or Solar Cycle 24, however the likelyhood is the latter.
David Hathaway’s prediction for Solar Cycle 25
Small cycles, like Cycle 24, start late and leave behind long cycles with deep extended minima [Hathaway, 2015]. We expect a similar deep, extended minimum for the Cycle 24/25 minimum in 2020.
can be seen here.
The Daily Express article is here
David does mistake 0.4°C above the recent 30 year average for the approximate 1.5°C rise over the past ~130 years, but that’s forgivable compared to a cloud change in the past 30 years being attributed to CO2 – do they expect cloud patterns to stay at some hitherto Goldilocks level?
More on the Hawaiian snow here
Another good round up by Gavin as we lead into winter (video below). One thing I would question is the discussion regarding the anomalous QBO.
The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is a tropical lower stratospheric, downward propagating zonal wind variation, with an average period of ~28 months. The QBO has been constantly documented since 1953. Here we describe the evolution of the QBO during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015–2016 using radiosonde observations and meteorological reanalyses. Normally, the QBO would show a steady downward propagation of the westerly phase. In 2015–2016, there was an anomalous upward displacement of this westerly phase from ~30 hPa to 15 hPa. These westerlies impinge on or “cutoff” the normal downward propagation of the easterly phase. In addition, easterly winds develop at 40 hPa. Comparisons to tropical wind statistics for the 1953 to present record demonstrate that this 2015–2016 QBO disruption is unprecedented.
The anomalous change in the QBO in 2015–2016, Newman 2016
Gavin does look back at some reanalysis at the turn of the last century but this misses out periods such as Solar Cycle 12 and 5, the latter during the Dalton Minimum. Do we know how the QBO behaved then?
Are these relevant? Who knows, but I would argue they are more relevant than a mention climate change or even to a degree the recent ENSO fluctuation – the latter begs the question of what caused it and there are other naturally forced candidates that must be explored/ruled out long before we look to human causes;
long term Lunar atmospheric tides could be acting as a trigger to favor either El Niño (positive PDO) or La Niña (Negative PDO) conditions
ARE GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY LONG-TERM LUNAR ATMOSPHERIC TIDES? Wilson 2013
We also have to factor in that the QBO was only discovered in the 1950’s. Drawing premature conclusions based on limited data is not wise, nor is mentioning climate change (which sadly is used to explain everything and thereby explains nothing).