Richard Betts Misunderstands Basic Science

Oof

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

From NTZ:

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Just recently Anthony Watts posted an article on wildfires penned by Paul Homewood. Lately alarmists have been blaming the active forest fire season on global warming. They warn that warmer temperatures will lead to more wildfires.

Is it so?

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Solar Cycle 25 is here, says NASA

IIRC SC24 was called more than once so is this the minimum? Time will tell.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

The Sun from NASA’s SDO spacecraft
Solar Cycle 25 has begun, according to this NASA press release.

During a media event on Tuesday, experts from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) discussed their analysis and predictions about the new solar cycle – and how the coming upswing in space weather will impact our lives and technology on Earth, as well as astronauts in space.

The Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, an international group of experts co-sponsored by NASA and NOAA, announced that solar minimum occurred in December 2019, marking the start of a new solar cycle.

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Facebook launches a ‘climate change information’ centre

Facebook watermelons might get offended if you don’t kneel to the #ClimateCult. Thankfully their AlGorerithms haven’t quite mastered censoring memes so the message can still get out there.
https://weatheraction.files.wordpress.com/2020/09/inshot_20200914_223333352.mp4

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Earth and climate – an ongoing controversy
Facebook, accountable only to its investors, now intends to pose as a proxy authority on the world’s present and future climate. But the author of the article below wants Facebook to go further and impose its own views on people, while hiding behind the usual catch-all accusation of ‘climate change denialism’ but offering no definition of it. Presumably suggesting that a carbon dioxide level of 0.04% in the atmosphere might not be a massive climate problem is beyond the pale, and should be suppressed? Without clarity about what is out of bounds in discussion, the risk of unfair censorship is obvious.
– – –
Even as Facebook, the world’s largest social media platform, admits that climate change “is real” and that “the science is unambiguous and the need to act grows more urgent by the day” the platform appears unwilling to take steps…

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Met Office Caught Cheating Over Wind Speed “Records”

research has become central; it also becomes more formalized, complex, and costly. A steadily increasing share is conducted for, by, or at the direction of, the Federal government.

Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers.

The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present

and is gravely to be regarded. Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientifictechnological elite…

President Dwight D. Eisenhower, January 17, 1961

We are a society with profound amnesia of the past, sadly led by our institutions who seem intent on erasure rather than understanding because it does not suit their ideological purposes – pushing the climate change meme because it fits so well with the global authorian agenda.

We can only hope the tide soon turns from this fanaticism and back to the truth of scientific wonder and discovery that we had before the clamour of global cooling and warming, fueled by the scent of money and power, led to the corruption of the field which is what has led to the nonsense of claiming August wind “records” based on a paucity of actual data.

The Met Office does have some good people who now really need to speak up and bring balance because when the dam breaks against them they need to make sure the zealots do not take everything with them. Zealots who are currently running amok, redefining what is real and observed whilst purging institutions of non-believers. They have no desire to understand the climate or weather, it is only a means to an end. Their fanaticism will always supercede the science and we ignore the warnings of the past at our peril.

The Lysenko story serves as a powerful warning against the collusion of ideology and science, a threat that is very much with us today.

Lysenkoism
Mark Pilkington / The Guardian
Thu 11 Sep 2003

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2003/sep/11/research.highereducation

You only have to read what happened to Cliff Mass to see the future that awaits if something does not change.

Now I have probably written more papers and done more research on Northwest weather and climate than any other individual. I know the literature. I attend the seminars. I wrote on book on NW weather and climate. I have spent a lifetime learning about it. But a bunch of climate activists, such as groups like 350.org decided they knew better. They were particularly unhappy when I exposed some of the hype and exaggeration promulgated by the activist crowd (e.g., that climate change is a short-term existential threat to mankind). There were also some wealthy, activist KNKX donors that were unhappy with my blog. These climate activists demanded that I talk about “existential climate threats” on KNKX [Radio] and stop my climate fact checking on my blog. I was a threat to them: knowledgeable, credible, and with access to the media. And they wanted that to end.

Cliff Mass
My Firing at KNKX
Thursday, August 13, 2020

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/08/my-firing-at-knkx.html?

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/08/25/storm-francis/

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You will recall my astonishment regarding Met Office claims that Storm Francis brought the highest ever gusts for August to parts of Britain this week. The claim was, of course, widely reported in the media, such as this grossly false claim by ITV:

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https://www.itv.com/news/2020-08-25/highest-ever-gusts-of-wind-recorded-in-august-as-storm-francis-lashes-uk

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As several readers pointed out, what about the infamous Fastnet storm in 1979, or Hurricane Charley in 1986?

So I asked the Met Office how far back their records went for Aberdaron, Vyrnwy and Pembrey Sands. Given their reputation for deceiving the public, I can’t say I was surprised by their answer!

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image

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In other words, none of these three stations had data for those earlier storms, and claims of “record” anything are utterly meaningless therefore.

So I also asked for Shobden and Pershore, and got more or less the same answer:

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Pershore, by the way, only has…

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Science is NOT about Consensus

He could offer no acceptable scientific explanation for his findings, and some doctors were offended at the suggestion that they should wash their hands and mocked him for it.

Nothing ever changes, except that now the superstition that we call consensus is laundered by machines to stitch new cloth for the naked emperors of science.

MalagaBay

Newsflash; real science is based on facts not “consensus”.

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Is California’s Heatwave Really So Hot?

in what some extreme weather watchers believe could be the hottest reading ever reliably recorded on the planet.

If you consider the past, and that our forebears were not complete blithering scientific neanderthals, you could easily comment on the belief this measurement is amoung the hottest ever recorded since records began in the Late Victorian era. The reliability of information is always open to question when there is a confluence with political and personal ideology – then as now.

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/08/20/death-valley-update/

The most effective way to destroy people is to deny and obliterate their own understanding of their history.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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A temperature of 54.4C – or 129.9F – has been recorded in Death Valley, California, in what some extreme weather watchers believe could be the hottest reading ever reliably recorded on the planet.

The United States National Weather Service’s automated weather station at Furnace Creek near the border with Nevada hit the extreme high at 3:41pm on Sunday afternoon, a statement said.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/17/death-valley-temperature-rises-to-544c-possibly-the-hottest-ever-reliably-recorded

The heat wave across the western United States is expected to last until Wednesday

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8634079/Death-Valley-hits-130-DEGREES-hottest-temperature-107-years.html

The heatwave in California has been making the news this week, and it is also being blamed for rolling blackouts in the state. But has it been exceptionally hot?

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BBC promotes its climate agenda on the back of recent train crash

Climate Amnesia

August 1829

In Stonehaven the houses in Cameron Street, Arbuthnot
Street, Ann Street, and part of Barclay Street were inundated to the depth of many feet. Many of the inhabitants only received the first intimation of their perilous situation by the water coming in contact with their warm beds. Two wooden bridges over the Carron were swept down the stream.

August 1958

The Mearns Leader described how heavy rain at the start of August had lead to a hurried evacuation of the Mill Lade campsite due to flooding from the Cowie and rainwater, and that “Householders near the lower reaches of the Carron, which was also running high, took precautions against the flooding of their properties”. At the end of the month there was a further flood event on the Cowie, and landslides at the Bervie Braes, although no mention of flooding from the Carron was made.

Aberdeenshire Council Appendix A: Stonehaven December 2012 Flood Event Review

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Credit: BBC
Another round of the usual ‘scientists agree’ assertions without saying which scientists, what exactly they supposedly agree on, and where the evidence – if it exists – can be found.
– – –
It’s already clear that torrential rain played a significant part in the first fatal derailment in the UK since 2007.

Scotland’s Transport Minister Michael Matheson has confirmed the conditions were a factor and Network Rail footage shows there were landslides in the area.

The climate is changing and scientists agree it’s very different to when the railways were built by our Victorian ancestors, claims BBC News.

Though landslips are not uncommon, particularly in that area around Stonehaven, climate change means they are happening much more frequently as the land struggles to cope with the volume of water.

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Past evidence supports complete loss of Arctic sea ice by 2035, say researchers

As the oceans turn there phases expect a change in the behaviour of the Arctic ice.

https://twitter.com/peikko763/status/1292773984786944001?s=19

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Still waiting
Climate modellers have a fairly dismal record in trying to predict sea ice patterns in the Arctic, always erring on the side of too much warming. Will this research do anything to improve matters? They seem to be using Earth’s past climate as a guide, while asserting that human-caused carbon dioxide is the main problem today.
– – –
A new study, published this week in the journal Nature Climate Change, supports predictions that the Arctic could be free of sea ice by 2035, reports Phys.org.

High temperatures in the Arctic during the last interglacial—the warm period around 127,000 years ago—have puzzled scientists for decades.

Now the UK Met Office’s Hadley Centre climate model has enabled an international team of researchers to compare Arctic sea ice conditions during the last interglacial with present day.

Their findings are important for improving predictions of future sea ice change.

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Greta Thunberg’s Message Of Doom Is Religion, Not Reality

We can but hope this trend away from alarmism continues, but all it takes is a hurricane for the loonies to come out of the woodwork again and drown out any sain voices.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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In January, the great and not so good of the corporate elite gathered at Davos for another telling off from Greta Thunberg.

“One year ago I came to Davos and told you that our house is on fire,” the climate activist reminded delegates. “I said I wanted you to panic.” In the intervening year they had not panicked enough, she said.

Although the meeting of the World Economic Forum was dedicated to creating a “Cohesive and Sustainable World”, and corporate culture has gone obsessively green, the naughty capitalists and greedy governments refused to end the use of fossil fuels instantly.

The rotters refused to extinguish commercial lifestyles to save the planet from imminent immolation.

Ironically, even as the high priestess of the Extinction Rebellion religion preached her sermon, Covid-19 was sweeping in from China and weeks later would shut down the world economy.

Since then we have…

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The Solar Minimum Superstorm of 1903

Spaceweather.com

July 29, 2020: Don’t let Solar Minimum fool you. The sun can throw a major tantrum even during the quiet phase of the 11-year solar cycle. That’s the conclusion of a new study published in the July 1st edition of the Astrophysical Journal Letters.

“In late October 1903, one of the strongest solar storms in modern history hit Earth,” say the lead authors of the study,  Hisashi Hayakawa (Osaka University, Japan) and Paulo Ribeiro (Coimbra University, Portugal). “The timing of the storm interestingly parallels where we are now–near Solar Minimum just after a weak solar cycle.”

redlineAbove: The red line marks the 1903 solar superstorm in a plot of the 11-year solar cycle. [ref] The 1903 event wasn’t always recognized as a great storm. Hayakawa and colleagues took an interest in it because of what happened when the storm hit. In magnetic observatories around the world, pens…

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New study detects ringing of the global atmosphere

The study focused particularly on waves with periods between 2 hours and 33 hours which travel horizontally through the atmosphere, moving around the globe at great speeds (exceeding 700 miles per hour). This sets up a characteristic “chequerboard” pattern of high and low pressure associated with these waves as they propagate

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Interesting study. Thanks OB.

Tallbloke's Talkshop


Researchers now want to ‘understand both the processes that excite the waves and the processes that act to damp the waves.’
– – –
A ringing bell vibrates simultaneously at a low-pitched fundamental tone and at many higher-pitched overtones, producing a pleasant musical sound, says Phys.org.

A recent study, just published in the Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences by scientists at Kyoto University and the University of Hawaii at Mānoa, shows that the Earth’s entire atmosphere vibrates in an analogous manner, in a striking confirmation of theories developed by physicists over the last two centuries.

In the case of the atmosphere, the “music” comes not as a sound we could hear, but in the form of large-scale waves of atmospheric pressure spanning the globe and traveling around the equator, some moving east-to-west and others west-to-east.

Each of these waves is a resonant vibration of the global atmosphere, analogous to…

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Book Review: “Apocalypse Never” By Michael Shellenberger

climate policies toward the developing world are a form of neo-colonialism. “It is hypocritical and unethical to demand that poor nations follow a more expensive and thus slower path to prosperity that the West followed,”

#GreenImperialism is one of the most unnerving and disgusting tenets of those pushing the neoliberal green agenda, which I wrote about long ago:

https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2015/05/24/greenimperialism-so-much-better-for-poor-people-to-die/

It is a vile form of liberal racism based upon the belief the savages need saving – it’s for their own good! Simply put the Green agenda will kill millions. Malthusian gorilla huggers and their apocalyptic cult sicophants are a clear and present danger to all humankind.

PA Pundits - International

By Peter Murphy~

The way to a cleaner, sustainable planet is not to eliminate fossil fuels and nuclear power, but rather to expand their use, especially in developing countries to bring economic growth and prosperity, the way such sources did for the developed world.

This is one of the primary themes in the new book, Apocalypse Never, written not by a “climate denier” or “corporate shill.” Instead, author Michael Shellenberger is a 30-year environmental activist with street cred in various causes including saving California’s redwood forests and co-founding a “progressive Democratic, labor-environment push” in 2002 for the New Apollo Project, a renewable energy initiative that long predated the Green New Deal. He also is a Time magazine “Hero of the Environment.”

Shellenberger’s background is a key reason Apocalypse Never is so devastating to extremist environmentalism that has taken hold in politics, the media, K-12 education and popular culture…

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UK could hit 40C ‘regularly’ by end of this century–Says Flawed Met Office Study

You get the feeling natural forcing will bite these computer projections in the posterior, especially when the AMO turns.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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Sweltering temperatures of up to 40C could be a regular occurrence in the UK by 2100 if carbon emissions stay very high says the Met Office.

The current record stands at 38.7C, set in Cambridge last July.

This new study says there is an “increasing likelihood” of going beyond this figure, because of the human influence on the climate.

Under the worst emissions scenario, the 40C mark could occur every three and a half years by the end of this century.

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UK is no longer a ‘wet and rainy’ country, head of Environment Agency says

Rewind to April 2012 (the wettest drought on record).

Head of water resources at the Environment Agency Trevor Bishop said: “A longer-term drought, lasting until Christmas and perhaps beyond, now looks more likely.

“We are working with businesses, farmers and water companies to plan ahead to meet the challenges of a continued drought.

I’m beginning to think there is something in the water 🤔

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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The UK can no longer be considered a wet country because of the effects of climate change, the head of the environment agency has said, as he urged people to turn off taps and take showers to save water.

More than 70 per cent of the county perceive the UK as a wet and rainy country and believe we have enough water to meet our needs, according to a new report supported by Sir James Bevan.

In a foreword, Sir James said that perception was “wrong”, despite the flooding seen during recent Storms Ciara and Dennis. Periods of extreme dry weather, linked to climate change, are putting strains on our water resources, with demand threatening to outstrip supply within 20 years, he said.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/06/18/uk-no-longer-wet-rainy-country-head-environment-agency-says/

What planet is this guy on?

Rainfall has been increasing in the UK since the 1970s. This is, admittedly, mainly due to higher…

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BBC Alarmed By A Sunny Spring!

The first problem is of course using records that began in 1929, missing years like 1893-4 as Paul highlights, however the following is from a weather illiterate polemicist;

“Some scientists say these ‘stalled’ weather patterns are a result of climate change and the warming that is taking place in the Arctic region could lead to more extreme weather events in future,” he said.

Prof Liz Bentley, chief executive of the Royal Meteorological Society, said the swing from record-breaking wet weather to the months of sunshine was “unprecedented” and “concerning” because it showed how much the UK’s climate was changing.

Let’s go back to The Times in May 1980, a time when Artic warming was non existent;

What about those blocking highs then?

Trying to pin down the change in the weather /Burroughs, W. J. /The Times (London, England), Wednesday, May 21, 1980

🤔

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t pardonmeforbreathing

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The UK has experienced its sunniest spring since records began in 1929, the Met Office has said.

It is also set to be the driest May on record for some parts of UK, including the driest in England for 124 years.

Some areas are already warning of drought conditions despite exceptionally wet weather and flooding earlier in the year.

But there are no plans for hosepipe bans yet, according to the water industry trade body Water UK.

The UK spent much of spring in lockdown due to the coronavirus pandemic, but thousands flocked to beaches last week to enjoy the sun following a slight easing of restrictions in England.

Only nine springs on record have topped 500 hours of sunshine but, by Wednesday, the UK had clocked up 573 hours.

While the Met Office’s full figures will not be available until Monday, the village of…

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Whaley Bridge Dam Collapse Due To Poor Design & Maintenance, Not Climate Change

Tantrums and blame during the event yet silence when the examination of the causes, poor maintenance, becomes clear 🤔 Climate change attribution in a nutshell.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t John Cooknell

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-derbyshire-49189955

You will no doubt recall the Whaley Bridge dam collapse last summer, which Sir James Bevan, Chairman of the Environment Agency, predictably blamed on climate change:

https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/the-climate-emergency-this-year-the-answers-are-different

Well, it appears that Bevan and his chums at the EA were asleep at the wheel, because a full independent review into the near catastrophe, published a couple of months ago but seemingly not well publicised, puts the blame firmly on a combination of poor design, exacerbated by inadequate maintenance.

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Michael Moore’s new film skewers green energy

Dellers in fine fettle with his latest reviewing the film, so is the. algorithm 😅

https://twitter.com/CraigM350/status/1253549285498654720?s=19

Tallbloke's Talkshop

The non-solution to the non-problem gets another going-over. Anything that gives the lie to ‘clean green’ mythology and gets a few headlines has to be welcomed.
– – –
A newly-released documentary from contrarian filmmaker Michael Moore calls green energy a fraud that is destroying the Earth, says Lorrie Goldstein @ The Toronto Sun.

Planet of the Humans also accuses the environmental movement of selling out to corporate and Wall St. interests, by shilling for these so-called renewable technologies.

The film premiered at the Traverse City Film Festival in July, but Moore released it on YouTube for free for 30 days on the eve of the 50th anniversary of Earth Day on Wednesday.

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Severe Spring Storms Send Sprite-Lightning to the Edge of Space

This could turn into one of the best sprite seasons on record. Why? Solar Minimum. The sun is currently experiencing one of the deepest minima in 100 years. As the sun’s magnetic field weakens, more cosmic rays from deep space are reaching Earth. Some researchers believe that cosmic rays help sprites get started by creating conductive paths in the atmosphere

Spaceweather.com

April 23, 2020: A series of unusually severe spring storms parading across the southeastern USA has residents taking shelter from golf-ball sized hail and dangerous tornadoes. High above the maelstrom, sprites are dancing. Paul M. Smith of Edmond, Oklahoma, captured these specimens on April 22nd.

“There were tornado warnings and very large hail throughout the night,” says Smith. “I photographed the sprites through a clearing around midnight.”

Sprites are a form of electricity in powerful storm clouds. While regular lightning lances down, sprites leap up. They can reach all the way to the edge of space 90 km or more above Earth’s surface. Spring thunderstorms often produce the year’s first big sprites, and the sightings continue through late summer.

“My camera was pointed toward Oklahoma City,” says Smith, “and the sprites were about 150 miles away.” This radar weather map shows shows the observing geometry:

When observing sprites, this kind…

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Timing of Earth’s biggest earthquakes follows a ‘devil’s staircase’ pattern

a change of any part — e.g., rupture of a fault or fault segment — could affect the behavior of the whole system,” scientists wrote in their paper.

The devil’s staircase pattern is also evidence in Earth’s sedimentation sequences and reversals of the planet’s magnetic field, as well as crustal uplift and erosion rates.

Now that is a most interesting find.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

[click on image to enlarge]
Fractals linked to earthquakes. Is that a first?

The timing of large, shallow earthquakes across the globe follows a mathematical pattern known as the devil’s staircase, according to a new study of seismic sequences.

Previously, scientists and their models have theorized that earthquake sequences happen periodically or quasi-periodically, following cycles of growing tension and release.

Researchers call it the elastic rebound model, says UPI.

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