Iceland’s volcanic eruption the longest in half a century

Rather impressive

Tallbloke's Talkshop

reykjanes1A local expert comments: “There seems to be still enough magma from whatever reservoir the eruption is tapping. So it could go on for a long time.”
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It will be six months on Sunday that the volcanic eruption currently mesmerising spectators near Reykjavik first began, making it the longest Iceland has witnessed in more than 50 years, says Phys.org.

The first lava began spewing out of a fissure close to Mount Fagradalsfjall on the evening of March 19 on the Reykjanes peninsula to the southwest of Reykjavik.

And the ensuing spectacle—ranging from just a slow trickle of lava at times to more dramatic geyser-like spurts of rocks and stones at others—has become a major tourist attraction, drawing 300,000 visitors so far, according to the Iceland Tourist Board.

Iceland’s sixth volcanic eruption in 20 years is already longer than the preceding one in Holuhraun, in the centre-east…

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Climate Modeling Civil War

I do not see these lavishly funded modeling centers telling their funders that they goofed and the last five years work just didn’t work out, so sorry. Most of these funders are national governments which might react negatively to such an admission.

Interestingly the Science article says the insanely scary and wrong near-term warming is due to a deep error that has been in the models during previous CMIPs. The CMIP6 changes just brought it to the surface, as it were. This casts deep doubt on the prior CMIP results as well.

Governments will only react badly to such an admission, especially regarding previous iterations of the CHIMP models, because that would undermines the whole ponzi scheme.

I get the feeling lies of omission will rule, but this admission by serial manure smearer Gavin is a surprise nonetheless 🤔

PA Pundits - International

By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~

Looks like the climate modeling community may have a civil war on its hands. Some serious players are rejecting the new hot models, but probably not their owners. If so we will see modeler against modeler. Be still my heart.

The first loud public shot has been fired by the prestigious journal Science (actually it is more of a magazine but never mind). Science is devoutly alarmist but they reject the hot models in the strongest possible terms (in a lengthy article that is not paywalled).

Their blunt article title is “U.N. climate panel confronts implausibly hot forecasts of future warming“. When it comes to science, “implausibly hot” is very strong language. Scientific language is normally extremely polite. (The U.N. climate panel is of course the IPCC.)

But it gets even stronger in the text. Here we find NASA’s Gavin Schmidt, arguably…

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Revealed: the BBC’s guide for pushing climate propaganda

Both the ‘disengaged traditionalists’ and ‘backbone conservatives’ are listed in the research alongside the euphemistic label ‘British pride.’

The former group can apparently be won over by changing the messenger and a focus on ‘national pride in practical achievements’, while the latter – skeptical, male, and working-class – are allegedly susceptible to messages which talk about ‘manufacturing fit for purpose.’

That perfectly encapsulates the entire tax payer funded, ecosystem of metropolitan elites – completely detatched from the rest of the population and unable to articulate why we don’t believe in human sacrifice at the altar of #NetZero. They really just don’t get it – as they didn’t get UKIP, Brexit, the Brexit Party, Orange Man or even why we didn’t worship Magic Grandpa like they did. The biggest difference between 2014 and now is we are far, far more pissed off and the brutal reality of #NetZero is going to open many more eyes and ears.

This ‘us and them’ divide is what happens when all they do most of the day is huff each others farts, then spend the rest of the day reading about how wonderful huffing farts is and afterwards meet with like minded minded people, often employed by companies that lobby for huffing farts, so they can discuss fart huffing. Bloody hell all they did at university was huff farts, so why shouldn’t they expect it continue in their employment? How could anyone not believe as they do? Ah but, in their minds, this is all about communicating, because failure so far has been due to not finding the right messaging to tell the smelly, small minded working-classes that fart huffing is the only way to go, rather than fart huffing is pretty gross. Ah! But the only reason these ‘British pride’ groups don’t believe is because they haven’t had the wonders of flatulence inhalation, and computer models built by fart huffers, properly explained to them! They’ll need a report then!

Such are the signs and symptoms of a narcissistic personality cult embedded within a culture of institutional deviance.

Fart huffers beware.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

BBCpicBBC staffers were recently taught how best to push messages about climate doom. So much for impartiality. Licence payers never agreed to this condescending nonsense.
– – –
Climate change is once again dominating the news agenda, says The Spectator (via Climate Change Dispatch).

A report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that even if emissions are cut rapidly, the effects of global warming will be felt across the world.

The report – which Boris Johnson has declared sobering reading – leads the news today, with the BBC dedicating seven stories on its homepage today to climate change.

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Tipping points, Attenboroughesque narratives of climate doom and dying polar bears

polarbearscience

Outlandish ‘tipping point’ rhetoric is about to be regurgitated once again during the promotion of the latest IPCC report, due today. Tipping points are those theoretical climate thresholds that, when breeched, cause widespread catastrophe; they are mathematical model outputs that depend on many assumptions that may not be plausible or even possible.

Polar bears often get caught up in motivational tales of sea ice tipping points.

Tipping points are not facts: they are scary stories made to sound like science.

This is why Sir David Attenborough has totally embraced the tipping points narrative. He even made a movie fully devoted to them, called, Breaking Boundaries – The Science of Our Planet. Tipping points are the animal tragedy porn of mathematical models and Attenborough has adopted them both.


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New evidence that solar forcing is greater than CO2 forcing.

🤔 Interesting and of course something you would see at the upcoming 26th Armageddonfest

Tallbloke's Talkshop

An IPCC scientist on twitter alerted me to this animation created by Chris Rentsch which analyses the data from the AIRS satellite measuring outgoing longwave radiation.

Here’s a still from the end of the video sequence.

As we can see, by 2019, there is a decrease in OLR at the wavelengths absorbed by CO2 (13-15um) as its atmospheric fraction increases. But we can also see that there is a much bigger increase in OLR at the wavelengths within the ‘atmospheric window’ (10-13um) where it isn’t absorbed by any atmospheric gases.


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Extreme Weather In 1971

When you read old reports on weather phenomenon, especially in the local press, there is always a fantastical element of human recollection that defines it as “never had it so bad”, “worst ever” or now the modern iteration “unprecedented”. In those days such debate was often resolved when an old timer wrote in, their wry smile practically dripping from the letters pages, that yes it had indeed happened before. However, now we have an industry dedicated to the attribution of sin to the weather:

Your sin causes earthly smiting, and earthly smiting is a cause of your sin. They know those because it is written into the models and so the models have foretold. It is not weather, nor the dearth of datapoints from short and manipulated histories that create a deviation from the average but an inconceivable singularity and omen of doom caused by your sin. They discounted every other explanation, so this can be the only explanation.

This can only be wrought by having a society with amnesia that worships the priestly experts of “for me, but not for thee” who practice “The Science”. It can only happen when the priestly class have become so dogmatic that they fervently believe that their every utterance and preconceived notion is in accordance with “The Science”. They are the model become flesh and you must die so that they can live.

… Or you can pick up an old newspaper, break the programming and realise old truths hold better than a narcissistic reflection of your own ideas.

What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

With COP26 looming large and the public beginning to be aware of the crippling cost of Net Zero, the media are desperately stoking alarm over every bad weather event that comes along. They have given up all pretence of objective reporting, and shamelessly blame every flood, heatwave, drought and storm on climate change.

As you will be aware, I have been running a monthly series on Britain’s weather 50 years ago, to compare with this year’s. But what about the weather around the world in 1971?

The summary below gives a flavour. (Full details are here.)

I defy anybody to claim that this year’s weather has been any worse:

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Arctic climate change may not be making winter jet stream ‘weird’ after all

The theory was always bunk. A cursory look at historical patterns would show that these patterns have occurred before, long before polar amplification could have possibly had an effect.

Matt Brewer and Cliff Mass <em>”looked at global climate models driven by rapidly increasing greenhouse gases and found that high-pressure areas like that seen last week will WEAKEN under global warming. Just the opposite of what Professor Mann was suggesting.”</em>

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2021/07/was-global-warming-cause-of-great.html?m=1

Tallbloke's Talkshop

arctic-sea-ice Arctic sea ice [image credit: Geoscience Daily] ‘New research is pouring cold water on once-hot theory’ – WashPo. Researchers refer to ‘overestimation’. (Weird in this context at least tends to mean something like ‘not well understood’).
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An influential, highly publicized theory — that a warming Arctic is causing more intense winter outbreaks of cold and snow in midlatitudes — is hitting resistance from an ongoing sequence of studies, including the most comprehensive polar modeling to date, says the Washington Post.

The idea, first put forth in a 2012 paper by Jennifer Francis, now at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, and Stephen Vavrus, at the University of Wisconsin at Madison, is that two well-established trends — Arctic amplification (intensified global warming at higher latitudes) and depleted sea ice — can force the polar jet stream to dip farther south, thus causing more intense bouts of winter weather…

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Offshore power ‘will fail without subsidies’

This could lead to mass early closures of offshore and onshore wind farms when their existing subsidy arrangements end, primarily from the 2030s.

If only, if only.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

Most wind farms in Britain will not be economically viable when existing subsidies end and will close prematurely without further revenue support, new analysis suggests.

A report commissioned by SSE has found that the huge expansion of wind power in the UK is likely to push wholesale electricity prices so low on windy days that most wind farms will be unable to cover their operating costs simply from selling power into the market.

This could lead to mass early closures of offshore and onshore wind farms when their existing subsidy arrangements end, primarily from the 2030s. Building new wind farms to replace them could increase the costs of hitting Britain’s net zero target by £20 billion, the report says.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/offshore-power-will-fail-without-subsidies-bx8908gm5?mc_cid=4038ba6bc4&mc_eid=870a48a53b

Some of us have been saying this for a long while.

There will, of course, be times when prices are high, but as this will be when…

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NLCs Setting Records

Whatever the explanation for their occurrence, they are rather awe inspiring as I found when I finally managed to capture one overhead, just after solstice this year.

Spaceweather.com

July 21, 2021: Noctilucent cloud (NLC) season is now 8 weeks old. This animation from NASA’s AIM spacecraft shows everything that has happened since the first clouds appeared in late May:

The last frame says it all: Noctilucent clouds are still bright and abundant. In fact, at the highest latitudes they are setting records.

“We’re seeing more clouds at 80°N than in any other year since AIM was launched,” says Cora Randall of the University of Colorado’s Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Research. “Cloud frequencies at 80°N are around 85%, whereas it’s more typical to see frequencies of about 75%.” (‘Frequencies’ are a measure of patchiness. 100% is complete coverage; 0% is no clouds at all.)

“This morning, I watched a fantastic display, the best of the year so far ,” reports Marek Nikodem, who photographed the clouds from Szubin, Poland (53°N) on July 21st:

“It’s not the end of…

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Germany’s flood disaster exposes folly of misbalanced Net Zero policies

The OBR estimates that in the next four years alone (2021 to 2025) the UK will spend nearly £50 billion on these subsidies to renewables investors.

A fraction of these astronomical handouts could deliver greatly improved flood prevention, defences and disaster recovery systems. Comparable spending would help to make the UK extremely resilient in the face of natural disasters.

We never learn from history and put up bird slicing follies, all to line the pockets of lobbyists and troughers. Drought and floods are a never ending cycle that repeats across the land. No matter how fanatically we pursue the #NetZero fantasy, we can never stop it but we have always been able to adapt and prepare for the worst.

https://craigm350.wordpress.com/2014/02/16/floodplains-the-clue-is-in-the-name/

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Press Release from the GWPF:

image

In recent days, meteorologists and extreme weather researchers have blamed a ‘monumental failure of Germany’s flood warning system’ for the death and devastation triggered by disastrous flooding.

Experts had warned the German government four days before the first floods about the high risk of flooding in the Rhine basin, but the government failed to implement flood protection measures that are, in any case historically underfunded and thus ineffective.

Despite previous flood disasters in recent decades, Germany’s priority in dealing with climate change has been to spend hundreds of billions of euros on wind and solar projects, failing almost completely to prepare communities for extreme weather events that are inevitable regardless of climate change.

In view of the habitual failure of UK governments to prevent and alleviate significant flooding events in the past, the Global Warming Policy Forum is calling for No. 10…

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Science failed to predict flood and heat intensity, needs better computer – BBC

This has the all too familiar refrain of an addict.

“I know I’ve spent billions of taxpayer’s money, but you can trust me now…”

The more deep in debt the compulsive gambler gets – and there’s no way around the fact that this will occur – the more elaborate and exaggerated the lies and stories he or she begins to concoct. There’ll be the robbery that occurred as he or she was depositing money in the bank – and now everything’s gone. Or someone stole his or her wallet and now the credit cards are gone. There may have been an unbelievable investment opportunity and it had a limited window, so he or she had to jump in now or lose the chance… All this and more will come out of the compulsive gambler’s mouth as a way to explain what happened to your money.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

metofficecomputer Weather forecasting technology

Maybe they need better ideas, not just more expensive modelling gear run by the same climate obsessives pushing worn-out theories that have never worked. Sales talk of ‘delivering the quantum leap’ sounds a bit thin after decades of posing as masters of climate understanding.
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Top climate scientists have admitted they failed to predict the intensity of the German floods and the North American heat dome, says BBC News.

They’ve correctly warned over decades that a fast-warming climate would bring worse bursts of rain and more damaging heatwaves.

But they say their computers are not powerful enough to accurately project the severity of those extremes.

They want governments to spend big on a shared climate super-computer.

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5 minutes

From time immemorial, humans have adapted to climate change. Whether or not we manage to drastically curtail our carbon dioxide emissions in the coming decades, we need to reduce our vulnerability to extreme weather and climate events.

This makes sense, just by looking at the climactic hardships humans have faced for millenia. However, even when you are reasonable, the counter is immediately a Year Zero for carbon. Because it’s never been about the climate, it’s always about resources.

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

How would you explain the complexity and uncertainty surrounding climate change plus how we should respond (particularly with regards to CO2 emissions) in five minutes?

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Solar farms: A toxic blot on the landscape

Environmental lobbyists argue

This is where we need need to change the nomenclature. They are not environmental lobbyists anymore than anyone lobbying for toxic waste dumps is an “environmentalist”.

The ‘green’ revolution will destroy our countryside, out wildlife and pockets for generations to come.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

solar-modulesGWPF: They’re filled with noxious chemicals, many are made by Chinese prisoners… and don’t even work efficiently in gloomy British weather. The Government admits that more than a fifth of our farmland will eventually be lost to solar farms.
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Across Britain, solar farms are on the march, says The Mail on Sunday / GWPF.

Some 1,000 acres of rural land a month are earmarked for ‘photovoltaic’ panels and the miles of cabling that go with them.

The Government admits that more than a fifth of our farmland will eventually be lost to ‘green’ initiatives such as these.

Last week, The Mail on Sunday counted 270 solar farms under construction or waiting for planning permission around the country.

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Scientists try to explain why climate models can’t reproduce the early-2000s global warming slowdown

The results show that although the CMIP6 models present some encouraging improvements when compared with CMIP5, most of them still fail to reproduce the warming slowdown. They considerably overestimate the warming rate observed in 1998–2013, exhibiting an obvious warming acceleration rather than the observed deceleration. This is probably associated with their deficiencies in simulating the distinct temperature change signals from the human-induced long-term warming trend and or the three crucial natural variabilities at interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal scales.

It’s not our theories, we need more money 🙄

Tallbloke's Talkshop

model_warm Climate models overheating

Explanation, or vague excuses? They seem to be saying the models are a wonder, just a shame they don’t reflect reality – mainly due to pesky natural variation.
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A new study led by Dr. Wei and Dr. Qiao from the First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural Resources provides an evaluation of the performance of the newly released CMIP6 models in simulating the global warming slowdown observed in the early 2000s, says Phys.org.

This study reveals that the key in simulating and predicting near-term temperate change is to correctly separate and simulate the two distinct signals, i.e., the human-induced long-term warming trend and natural variabilities, especially those at interannual, interdecadal and multidecadal scales.

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100 Years Later: The Great Geomagnetic Storm of May 1921

The same solar storm today could black out regional power grids, expose air travelers to radiation, knock out satellites, and disable radio-based technologies such as GPS.

😳

Spaceweather.com

May 15, 2021: You know a solar storm is serious when buildings burst into flame. Sounds crazy? It really happened 100 years ago today.

On May 15, 1921, the biggest solar storm of the 20th century hit Earth. Around 02:00 GMT that Sunday morning a telegraph exchange in Sweden burst into flames. Across the Atlantic, the same thing was going on in New York. Flames engulfed the switch-board at the Brewster station of the Central New England Railroad and quickly spread to destroy the whole building. During the conflagration, long distance telephone lines burned out in New Brunswick; voltages on telegraph lines in the USA spiked as high as 1000 V; and auroras were sighted by ships at sea crossing the equator. It was a Big. Solar. Storm.

The outburst happened during the lazy tail end of Solar Cycle 15, an unremarkable cycle that was almost over in 1921. Sunspot…

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Rainy and cool May so far 

Official blog of the Met Office news team

A sodden start to May has already sent large parts of the UK to within touching distance of their average rainfall for the month, with Wales having seen at least 25% more rain than would be expected over the course of the whole month.  

The UK has been grippedby the influenceofpersistent low pressure systems since the start of the month, with Wales and northern parts of England bearing the brunt of persistent, heavy rainfall and sometimes stormy conditions.

According to provisional figures from the National Climate Information Centre, Wales has already had129%(110.6mm) ofitsaveragerainfallfor the whole of the month, while the UKasa whole hashad 88% (61.1mm).Despite Wales and northern England seeing the most persistent rain, all countries in the UK are currently tracking well ahead of the amount of rainfall that would be expected by this point of the month, with Scotland already having 72%(60.9mm)of its May average total, Northern Ireland 77%(55.8mm)and England92%(53.9mm).

Map showing…

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Electric cars may make driving too expensive for middle classes, warns Vauxhall chief

“I can’t imagine a democratic society where there is no freedom of mobility because it’s only for wealthy people and all the others will use public transport.”

So no trips to recycling centers, no transportation for parents with young children (susceptible to the elements), 14m disabled people, parents with disabled children who may not qualify for government assistance but who rely on their cars to transport them, hospital and healthcare visits, rural communities etc…

It all doesn’t matter because:

You will own nothing and be happy.

🤔

Tallbloke's Talkshop

corsa-e Vauxhall Corsa-E [image credit: carmagazine.co.uk] Car makers are getting nervous about the high cost of electric cars compared to fuel burners. Sales figures for EVs aren’t impressive, and uncompetitive prices are just one of several negative factors. Being pushed around by climate-obsessed governments is causing problems, to say the least.
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Driving could become the preserve of the rich as Britain and other countries around the world impose bans on diesel and petrol cars and embrace electrification, the boss of Vauxhall owner Stellantis has warned. The Telegraph/Yahoo Finance reporting.

A global rush to go electric could make cars too expensive for the middle classes, said Carlos Tavares, chief executive of the world’s fifth-biggest car maker – and it may even fail to significantly reduce carbon emissions because the vehicles are so much heavier than petrol ones.

The comments are the most outspoken public criticism of electrification by any…

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Study Concludes that Covid Sceptics are Smart, Sophisticated, Scientifically Literate and Very Dangerous!

A fascinating read into the mindset of the indoctrination in academia. They really got their knickers in a twist trying to wrangle this one.

climatecontrarian

This is probably one of the most amazing studies on Scepticism and Sceptics (Covid, in this case) I’ve ever read, which just blows away Lew’s clumsy and faltering attempts to mischaracterise and traduce climate sceptics. It really is a work of fine art which comes to all the ‘wrong’ conclusions about a group of people who formally question the official scientific narrative. Having done so it then proceeds to completely turn those conclusions (which are glowingly positive overall) upon their head to bizarrely argue for a negative interpretation of scepticism which is totally unjustified by their findings! I’ve never seen anything like it.

Before I give my own analysis of the study, here are some tweets from a person equally amazed by it:

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Adios, Global Warming

It will be interesting if a Niña develops again and how this would affect temperatures. However a large enough VEI eruption that pumps into the stratosphere would be a real source throw. Either way it’s not looking likely run away warming is anything to worry about in the next decade 🤔

Science Matters

a62edf0f39de560a219b7262163b0d45

The post below updates the UAH record of air temperatures over land and ocean.  But as an overview consider how recent rapid cooling has now completely overcome the warming from the last 3 El Ninos (1998, 2010 and 2016).  The UAH record shows that the effects of the last one are now gone as of April 2021. (UAH baseline is now 1991-2020).

UAH Global 1995to202104 w co2 overlayFor reference I added an overlay of CO2 annual concentrations as measured at Moana Loa.  While temperatures fluctuated up and down ending flat, CO2 went up steadily by ~55 ppm, a 15% increase.

Furthermore, going back to previous warmings prior to the satellite record shows that the entire rise of 0.8C since 1947 is due to oceanic, not human activity.

 

gmt-warming-events

The animation is an update of a previous analysis from Dr. Murry Salby.  These graphs use Hadcrut4 and include the 2016 El Nino warming event.  The exhibit…

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BBC’s Fake Victoria Falls Report

I had a rather good discussion with the late Dr Waheed Uddin, David Birch and Carlos Ramirez amongst others on this topic back in November 2019. As always history doesn’t support the narrative. Sadly some of the tweets are missing as they have either been deleted by Twitter’s overcensorious ban hammer or the user.

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t MrGrimNasty

image

In our monthly feature, Then and Now, we reveal some of the ways that planet Earth has been changing against the backdrop of a warming world. Here, we look at the effects of global heating on Victoria Falls, one of the natural wonders of the world – and how Sub-Saharan Africa is learning to cope with the climate crisis.

In full flow, Victoria Falls easily qualifies as one of the natural wonders of the world. Spanning 1.7km at its widest point and with a height of more than 100m, locals refer to Africa’s greatest waterfall as “the smoke that thunders”.

This amazing feature is formed as the Zambezi river plunges into a chasm called the First Gorge. The chasm was carved by the action of water along a natural fracture zone in the volcanic rock that makes up the landscape in this region of…

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