Have climate models outlived their usefulness? – Net Zero Watch

As Hubert Lamb observed in 1994

“there has been too much theory and not enough fact in predicting the future.

Computer models are a rather expensive example of that error.

Tallbloke's Talkshop


Is more computing power just getting us the wrong results from overheated models faster?
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Outside of their academic fascination, looked at in terms of their contribution to climate policy, it seems that we may have reached the useful limit of computer climate modelling, says Dr. David Whitehouse.

The first computers built in the 1950s allowed climate scientists to think about modelling the climate using this new technology.

The first usable computer climate models were developed in the mid-1970s.

Shortly afterwards the US National Academy of Sciences used their outcomes to estimate a crucial climate parameter we still calculate today – the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) – how much the world would warm (from ‘pre-industrial’ levels) with a doubling of CO2 — and concluded that it had a range of 1.5 – 4.5°C.

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Weather’s unwanted guest: Nasty La Niña keeps popping up, confounding climate modellers

What’s bothering many scientists is that their go-to climate simulation models that tend to get conditions right over the rest of the globe predict more El Ninos, not La Ninas, and that’s causing contention in the climate community about what to believe

Encapsulated in that one sentence is everything wrong with climate religion science. Maybe if data hadn’t been so persecuted for not confirming to the beliefs of Gaia’s devout..?

Tallbloke's Talkshop


When observations show modellers ‘the opposite of what their best computer model simulations say should be happening with human-caused climate change’, it’s surely time to revisit their assumptions. Meanwhile, much head-scratching.
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Something weird is up with La Nina, the natural but potent weather event linked to more drought and wildfires in the western United States and more Atlantic hurricanes, says Phys.org.

It’s becoming the nation’s unwanted weather guest and meteorologists said the West’s megadrought won’t go away until La Nina does.

The current double-dip La Nina set a record for strength last month and is forecast to likely be around for a rare but not quite unprecedented third straight winter. And it’s not just this one.

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Does The UK Subsidise Fossil Fuels?

UK oil and gas producers pay tax at a much higher rate than the rest of UK industry. In particular:

They pay Corporation Tax at a rate of 30%, instead of the standard rate of 19%.

They also have to pay a Supplementary Charge of 10% on profits

“But it’s a subsi..reeeeeeee”
https://weatheraction.files.wordpress.com/2022/04/wp-1650804719352.jpg

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/04/23/renewable-subsidies-have-cost-78-billion-in-last-10-years/

.

There has long been a concerted effort by the green lobby to persuade the public that they are paying billions in subsidies to the nasty fossil fuel industry, particularly in the UK. The above comment exemplifies this.

He quotes the OECD, who are of course at heart a political organisation, just like their subsidiary, the IEA. The OECD simply follow their masters wishes, that is the governments who make it up. The OECD’s position on climate change is exactly the same as its member governments:

image

https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/inventory-of-estimated-budgetary-support-and-tax-expenditures-for-fossil-fuels-2013_9789264187610-en#page17

As Rafal comments, the OECD regard “tax reliefs” as “subsidies”. They are no such thing, and the OECD is deliberately misleading people in claiming so.

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Temps Cause CO2 Changes, Not the Reverse. 2022 Update

I was listening to a Delingpod earlier this week and the Co2 leads temperature canard came out. I immediately thought of Salby’s work and the geological record, but with the smoothing and difficulties with precision for icecores it’s nice to see something with real time data to see it in effect (even if the adjustments to the temperature record are a bit disconcerting).

A fascinating post. Great work Ron.

The IPCC doctrine which has long been promoted goes as follows. We have a number over here for monthly fossil fuel CO2 emissions, and a number over there for monthly atmospheric CO2. We don’t have good numbers for the rest of it-oceans, soils, biosphere–though rough estimates are orders of magnitude higher, dwarfing human CO2. So we ignore nature and assume it is always a sink, explaining the difference between the two numbers we do have. Easy peasy, science settled.

What about the fact that nature continues to absorb about half of human emissions, even while FF CO2 increased by 60% over the last 2 decades? What about the fact that in 2020 FF CO2 declined significantly with no discernable impact on rising atmospheric CO2?

Science Matters

This post is about proving that CO2 changes in response to temperature changes, not the other way around, as is often claimed.  In order to do  that we need two datasets: one for measurements of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations over time and one for estimates of Global Mean Temperature changes over time.

Climate science is unsettling because past data are not fixed, but change later on.  I ran into this previously and now again in 2021 and 2022 when I set out to update an analysis done in 2014 by Jeremy Shiers (discussed in a previous post reprinted at the end).  Jeremy provided a spreadsheet in his essay Murray Salby Showed CO2 Follows Temperature Now You Can Too posted in January 2014. I downloaded his spreadsheet intending to bring the analysis up to the present to see if the results hold up.  The two sources of data were:

Temperature…

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The Cat Has Caught Up With What I Was Saying About Covid & Climate In 2020

Grifters gonna grift, but it has never been about the koof… or the climate.

https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2020/03/17/watch-coronavirus-and-climate-change-propagandawatch/

climatecontrarian

Not wishing to blow my own trumpet, I shall content myself with strumming gently and forlornly upon my own little violin. I was saying nearly two years ago (actually it was two years ago) that Covid and Climate Change were basically two sides of the same coin and both thus essentially socio-political agendas hijacking ‘science’ in order to inject their false prospectus deep into our lives (and even, as it turned out, our actual bodies). Very few listened to me and quite a few criticised me, often in less than polite terms.

In April 2020 I wrote this article:

They got it…

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Met Office: Why Storm Eunice was so severe, and will violent wind storms become more common?

The Science™️ This is just like the fun with the polar vortex a few years ago, despite being well known about in the 1970s, but created instant media coverage as "experts" in The Science™️ immediately linked it with 🎶 ominous music plays 🎶 Climate Change. It's been Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, the Indian Dipole, El Nino … Continue reading Met Office: Why Storm Eunice was so severe, and will violent wind storms become more common?

Frozen Turkey, snow havoc in southeast Europe

Tallbloke's Talkshop


‘Climate crisis’ latest: too much snow and severe cold at night in parts of the Mediterranean region.
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Europe’s busiest airport shut down in Istanbul on Monday while schools and vaccination centres closed in Athens as a rare snowstorm blanketed swathes of the eastern Mediterranean, causing blackouts and traffic havoc, reports Phys.org.

The closure of Istanbul Airport — where the roof of one of the cargo terminals collapsed under heavy snow, causing no injuries — grounded flights stretching from the Middle East and Africa to Europe and Asia.

Travel officials told AFP it marked the glass-and-steel structure’s first shutdown since it replaced Istanbul’s old Ataturk Airport as the new hub for Turkish Airlines in 2019.

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Europe’s Energy Crisis Is About to Get Worse as Winter Arrives

It’s not looking good that’s for sure!

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

Energy prices in Europe are repeatedly breaking records even before winter really kicks in, and one of the most damaging cost crunches in history is about to get worse as the temperature starts to drop.

A super price spike in the U.K. last month forced some industrial companies to cut production and seek state aid, a harbinger for what could play out widely in Europe just as it contends with a resurgence of the coronavirus. For governments, it could mean tension with neighboring countries by moving to protect supplies. For households, it could mean being asked to use less energy or even plan for rolling blackouts.

The trouble is that any fix is unlikely to come from the supply side any time soon, with exporters Russia piping only what it has to and Qatar saying it’s producing what it can. The energy industry is instead faced with…

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#GreenColonialism : “600 million Africans have no lights”

Alex Epstein is trying to highlight lesser heard voices from poorer nations about the need for access to cheap reliable energy, highlighted by Nigerian Vice President Yemi Osinbajo who recently wrote: limiting the development of fossil fuel projects and, in particular, natural gas projects would have a profoundly negative impact on Africa. Natural gas doesn't … Continue reading #GreenColonialism : “600 million Africans have no lights”

BBC boss claims climate change no longer ‘politically controversial issue’

We redefined “what the peer review literature is”
We cancelled dissenting voices
We black balled editors who didn’t publish what we wanted
We ostracised anyone who went against the narrative
We removed discussions in newpapers comment sections
We call anyone who doesn’t agree with our agenda in collusion with Big Oil and call them names.
We write attack articles on anyone who doesn’t agree with us

Yep. The Science™ is settled.

There is no controversy.

🤔

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Maybe not for most paid politicians, but among the population at large there’s plenty of controversy. But the BBC won’t air the public’s views any more, unless favourable to its own alarmist climate propaganda. The media plan is to produce more ‘climate change storytelling’, which sounds like another good reason to not switch them on, or switch off.
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The director-general of the BBC has said climate change is no longer a ‘politically controversial’ issue, reports the Daily Mail (via msn.com).

Tim Davie made the comment while speaking as part of a panel that coincided with Cop26.

He said: ‘The overwhelming consensus is that we, as humanity, are causing global warming. There are voices on the fringes but, in my view, when it comes to due impartiality for the BBC, we are now at a point where we have consensus around that.

‘But then you do get…

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A Theory of the Hack

A fascinating read of what went on in 2009 ahead of Copenhagen…and it wasn’t “Russian intel services or US fossil fuel corporations”

Climate Audit

Two major new BBC programs, The Trick and the Hack That Changed The World, re-visit 2009 Climategate events on the eve of UK hosting the most recent international climate get-together. I was interviewed by The Hack and mentioned in The Trick as a villain.

In today’s article, I’m going to propose a theory of the Climategate hack that is very different from the grandiose conspiracy of Russian intel services and US fossil fuel corporations that is the prevalent fantasy of the climate “community” and chattering classes. Subsequent to my interview with the Hack That Changed, I’ve re-examined and cross-checked documents and noticed some interesting new connections. I don’t know the identity of the Climategate hacker, but do believe that deductions about his profile (e.g. motivated individual vs paid institutional hacker) can be made more intelligently by carefully examining details of what was exfiltrated and when – as I shall do…

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Parody Unbound: UKHSA, in Seeking To Explain Away Why Jabbed Infection Rate is More Than Twice Unjabbed Inadvertently Reveal the Reason: The Unjabbed still have Natural Immunity!

This epitomises the absolute 🤡 🌍 we live in.

The medical/political spin is just like the Black Knight from Monty Python’s Holy Grail 🤣

climatecontrarian

You can’t make this up anymore; you just can’t. This is so bizarre, it’s like Alice in Wonderland meets the Twilight Zone.

The UKHSA are gnashing their teeth over what their own raw data reveals; that in all double-jabbed people over the age of 30, the infection rate of SARS-CoV-2 virus, according to PCR testing, significantly exceeds that of the unjabbed and in people over 40, the rate of infection in the jabbed is more than twice that of the unjabbed, except for the over 80s. This has proved deeply embarrassing for the UK government and now they are desperately attempting to explain away their inconvenient data as due to confounding factors rather than it being inherently due to the administration of the ‘vaccines’. Eugyppius has kindly provided a graph of the differences in infection rates, which the UKHSA has failed to provide itself in their latest report, presumably…

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Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Current found to be synchronized on decadal time scale

Interesting

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Credit: NOAA

Researchers propose another weather/climate cycle.
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A team of researchers with members affiliated with a large number of institutions across Japan has found that the Gulf stream and Kuroshio are synchronized on a decadal time scale, says Phys.org.

In their paper published in the journal Science, the group describes their study of decades of weather satellite data and the link between the two ocean currents.

Paola Cessi, with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, has published a Perspective piece on the work done by the team in Japan in the same journal issue.

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South Pole froze over in coldest winter on record

Worth bearing in mind that this record is less than 3 hale cycles long but interestingly 2 hale cycles ago (1976) lies the previous record 🤔

Whatever the cause it’s not melting away.

Between April and September, a research station sitting on a high plateau in Antarctica, registered an average temperature of minus 78 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 61 degrees Celsius).

That’s the coldest temperature recorded since record keeping began in 1957, and about 4.5 F (2.5 C) lower than the most recent 30-year average

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Antarctic sea ice [image credit: BBC] We’re asked to believe this is just a blip in the relentless march of supposedly human-caused global warming, but let’s give it a few more years to see how things progress.
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Antarctica’s frigid winter temperatures are in contrast to trends in the rest of the world, which overall recorded its fourth hottest summer, says LiveScience.

Between April and September, a research station sitting on a high plateau in Antarctica, registered an average temperature of minus 78 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 61 degrees Celsius).

That’s the coldest temperature recorded since record keeping began in 1957, and about 4.5 F (2.5 C) lower than the most recent 30-year average, according to The Washington Post.

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Earth Can Make Auroras Without Solar Activity

“We have found a totally new way that particle energy can be transferred from Earth’s own atmosphere out to the magnetosphere and back again, creating a giant feedback loop in space.”

Spaceweather.com

Sept. 24, 2021: No solar storms? No problem. Earth has learned to make its own auroras. New results from NASA’s THEMIS-ARTEMIS spacecraft show that a type of Northern Lights called “diffuse auroras” comes from our own planet–no solar storms required.

Diffuse auroras look a bit like pea soup. They spread across the sky in a dim green haze, sometimes rippling as if stirred by a spoon. They’renot as flamboyant as auroras caused by solar storms. Nevertheless, they are important because they represent a whopping 75% of the energy input into Earth’s upper atmosphere at night. Researchers have been struggling to understand them for decades.

Above: Diffuse auroras and the Big Dipper, photographed by Emmanuel V. Masongsong in Fairbanks, AK

“We believe we have found the source of these auroras,” says UCLA space physicist Xu Zhang, lead author of papers reporting the results in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics

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Climate Change Committee misled Parliament about the cost of Net Zero

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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* Highly optimistic assumptions about EV costs have been called into question by the actual development of EV costs since the CCC advised Parliament

* Committee on Climate Change spreadsheets only revealed after 2 year freedom of information campaign

* Costs could be £60,000 per household higher than the CCC estimates that MPs used when they were considering Net Zero legislation

London, 26 September – The Sunday Telegraph reports today that Parliament was misled into supporting Net Zero plans to decarbonise the economy.

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Iceland’s volcanic eruption the longest in half a century

Rather impressive

Tallbloke's Talkshop

reykjanes1A local expert comments: “There seems to be still enough magma from whatever reservoir the eruption is tapping. So it could go on for a long time.”
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It will be six months on Sunday that the volcanic eruption currently mesmerising spectators near Reykjavik first began, making it the longest Iceland has witnessed in more than 50 years, says Phys.org.

The first lava began spewing out of a fissure close to Mount Fagradalsfjall on the evening of March 19 on the Reykjanes peninsula to the southwest of Reykjavik.

And the ensuing spectacle—ranging from just a slow trickle of lava at times to more dramatic geyser-like spurts of rocks and stones at others—has become a major tourist attraction, drawing 300,000 visitors so far, according to the Iceland Tourist Board.

Iceland’s sixth volcanic eruption in 20 years is already longer than the preceding one in Holuhraun, in the centre-east…

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Climate Modeling Civil War

I do not see these lavishly funded modeling centers telling their funders that they goofed and the last five years work just didn’t work out, so sorry. Most of these funders are national governments which might react negatively to such an admission.

Interestingly the Science article says the insanely scary and wrong near-term warming is due to a deep error that has been in the models during previous CMIPs. The CMIP6 changes just brought it to the surface, as it were. This casts deep doubt on the prior CMIP results as well.

Governments will only react badly to such an admission, especially regarding previous iterations of the CHIMP models, because that would undermines the whole ponzi scheme.

I get the feeling lies of omission will rule, but this admission by serial manure smearer Gavin is a surprise nonetheless 🤔

PA Pundits - International

By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~

Looks like the climate modeling community may have a civil war on its hands. Some serious players are rejecting the new hot models, but probably not their owners. If so we will see modeler against modeler. Be still my heart.

The first loud public shot has been fired by the prestigious journal Science (actually it is more of a magazine but never mind). Science is devoutly alarmist but they reject the hot models in the strongest possible terms (in a lengthy article that is not paywalled).

Their blunt article title is “U.N. climate panel confronts implausibly hot forecasts of future warming“. When it comes to science, “implausibly hot” is very strong language. Scientific language is normally extremely polite. (The U.N. climate panel is of course the IPCC.)

But it gets even stronger in the text. Here we find NASA’s Gavin Schmidt, arguably…

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Revealed: the BBC’s guide for pushing climate propaganda

Both the ‘disengaged traditionalists’ and ‘backbone conservatives’ are listed in the research alongside the euphemistic label ‘British pride.’

The former group can apparently be won over by changing the messenger and a focus on ‘national pride in practical achievements’, while the latter – skeptical, male, and working-class – are allegedly susceptible to messages which talk about ‘manufacturing fit for purpose.’

That perfectly encapsulates the entire tax payer funded, ecosystem of metropolitan elites – completely detatched from the rest of the population and unable to articulate why we don’t believe in human sacrifice at the altar of #NetZero. They really just don’t get it – as they didn’t get UKIP, Brexit, the Brexit Party, Orange Man or even why we didn’t worship Magic Grandpa like they did. The biggest difference between 2014 and now is we are far, far more pissed off and the brutal reality of #NetZero is going to open many more eyes and ears.

This ‘us and them’ divide is what happens when all they do most of the day is huff each others farts, then spend the rest of the day reading about how wonderful huffing farts is and afterwards meet with like minded minded people, often employed by companies that lobby for huffing farts, so they can discuss fart huffing. Bloody hell all they did at university was huff farts, so why shouldn’t they expect it continue in their employment? How could anyone not believe as they do? Ah but, in their minds, this is all about communicating, because failure so far has been due to not finding the right messaging to tell the smelly, small minded working-classes that fart huffing is the only way to go, rather than fart huffing is pretty gross. Ah! But the only reason these ‘British pride’ groups don’t believe is because they haven’t had the wonders of flatulence inhalation, and computer models built by fart huffers, properly explained to them! They’ll need a report then!

Such are the signs and symptoms of a narcissistic personality cult embedded within a culture of institutional deviance.

Fart huffers beware.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

BBCpicBBC staffers were recently taught how best to push messages about climate doom. So much for impartiality. Licence payers never agreed to this condescending nonsense.
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Climate change is once again dominating the news agenda, says The Spectator (via Climate Change Dispatch).

A report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned that even if emissions are cut rapidly, the effects of global warming will be felt across the world.

The report – which Boris Johnson has declared sobering reading – leads the news today, with the BBC dedicating seven stories on its homepage today to climate change.

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