UK Heatwave Analysis I: Total Model Failure So . . . . . . It must be worse than we thought!

In a normal world, this would prompt scientists to conclude that the models were faulty and that perhaps the science and a priori assumptions which are built into them need to be re-examined. Or they would ask themselves, did some other factor or factors contribute significantly to this event? But no, in the world of post-normal, post Enlightenment ‘science’, the conclusion is that the models are right, but not right enough, in that they underestimate how bad heatwaves are getting, so then we get the inevitable siren call of alarmists everywhere: “Arrggghhh, it’s much worse than we thought! Urgent action is now super-urgent! Act now or we’re all going to die!”

Nevermind that extremes of temperature and/or precipitation were seen in the 1970s as a sign of global cooling. Nevermind that Piers Corbyn predicted this over a decade ago, as have many working on the solar influenced aspect of climate, including the magnitude of this event, which was preceded by a new moon and a strong flux in solar activity (correlation ≠ causation).

Or it could be natural variability, the swings of which our climate has shown time and time again it is more than capable of on short and long time scales. However, just like my childhood doctor, who diagnosed sausages (or any meat if you’d foresaken sausages) as the cause of every tummy upset, these quacks diagnose the gas of life as an excuse whatever the weather (except when the weather is quite ordinary they suddenly go silent).

We narcissistic humans think everything is caused by us, that we are the deities of this planet. Humility is a concept beyond cultists. Don’t be a ClimateQuack™️. Be humble.

climatecontrarian

That’s the basic message fromWorld Weather Attributionwho have – of course – run off a quick-fire, non peer-reviewed attribution analysis of the two day ‘heatwave’ which affected the UK on July 18th and 19th which – of course – concludes that it was man-made climate change wot dunnit.

Here’s what they say about their study, which we’ll look at in detail in Part II:

  • The likelihood of observing such an event in a 1.2°C cooler world is extremely low, and statistically impossible in two out of the three analysed stations.
  • The observational analysis shows that a UK heatwave as defined above would be about 4°C cooler in preindustrial times.
  • To estimate how much of these observed changes is attributable to human-caused climate change we combine climate models with the observations.It is important to highlight that all models systematically underestimate the observed trends. [My emphasis]…

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Ned Nikolov: Does a Surface Solar Radiation Dataset Expose a Major Manipulation of Global Temperature Records?

Hubert Lamb wrote of the discrepancy between the documented cold period of the 60s and 70s and the continuing rise of CO2.

https://weatheraction.files.wordpress.com/2022/07/wp-16575574761857526499764778672608.jpg

As Ned highlights, it had to be removed. They made sure the awkward moment of discovery never happened.

https://weatheraction.files.wordpress.com/2022/07/wp-16575581498413152982235580406825.jpg

That’s how the party keep power – rewriting history and language.

This GWPF report covers Lamb’s work during that period:
https://www.thegwpf.org/publications/hubert-lamb-and-the-transformation-of-climate-science/

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Once again it’s my pleasure to publish a new paper by Ned Nikolov and Karl Zeller at the Talkshop. In this study, we see the presentation of a climate conundrum, and recent surface solar radiation data which helps shed new light on the questions surrounding the ongoing adjustment of global temperature datasets. This new study applies theory developed in Ned and Karl’s previous paper to enable quantification of the global temperature drop during the “1970s ice-age scare”. This won’t be the last word on the topic, but it offers a solid grounding for further research.

Implications of a New Gridded Dataset of Surface Solar Radiation
for the Evolution of Earth’s Global Surface Temperature Since 1960

Ned Nikolov, Ph.D. and Karl Zeller, Ph.D.
July, 2022

  1. Introduction

It is a matter of conventional wisdom now that the Earth was significantly cooler during 1960s compared to the 21st Century. Similarly, no one…

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“We Live In The Coldest Period Of The Last 10.000 Years"

I wonder how the polar bears coped with all that heat…

The oldest known polar bear fossil is a 130,000 to 110,000-year-old jaw bone, found on Prince Charles Foreland in 2004.[23]

https://vimeo.com/14366077

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

Jørgen Peder Steffensen is an Associate Professor at the University of Copenhagen and one of the world’s leading experts on ice cores. Using ice cores from sites in Greenland, he has been able to reconstruct temperatures there for the last 10000 years. So what are his conclusions?

  • Temperatures in Greenland were about 1.5 C warmer 1000 years ago than now.
  • It was perhaps 2.5 C warmer 4000 years ago.
  • The period around 1875, at the lowest point of the Little Ice Age, marked the coldest point in the last 10,000 years.
  • Other evidence from elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere confirms this picture.

His final comment is particularly telling :-

I agree totally we have had a global temperature increase in the 20thC – but an increase from what? ..Probably an increase from the lowest point in the last 10,000 years.

We started to observe meteorology at the…

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Alarmist dismay as US Supreme Court rules against EPA on climate regulation powers

Like NetZero in the UK, if they want it they have to vote for it, but they can’t do that because no one but the zealots and predator class wasn’t it. Instead they used legislative fiat and got rumbled.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Verdict [image credit: coindesk.com]
Democracy overseeing the flow of EPA climate edicts? A ‘huge blow’, say alarmists, as over-the-top reactions from some of the usual suspects pour in.
– – –
This means Congress will now have to pass off on any climate regulations, says Energy Live News.

In what’s been considered a blow to climate mitigation in the US, the Supreme Court has ruled against the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

This means the EPA will now be limited in how it can regulate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and help stave off global warming in the country.

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Have climate models outlived their usefulness? – Net Zero Watch

As Hubert Lamb observed in 1994

“there has been too much theory and not enough fact in predicting the future.

Computer models are a rather expensive example of that error.

Tallbloke's Talkshop


Is more computing power just getting us the wrong results from overheated models faster?
– – –
Outside of their academic fascination, looked at in terms of their contribution to climate policy, it seems that we may have reached the useful limit of computer climate modelling, says Dr. David Whitehouse.

The first computers built in the 1950s allowed climate scientists to think about modelling the climate using this new technology.

The first usable computer climate models were developed in the mid-1970s.

Shortly afterwards the US National Academy of Sciences used their outcomes to estimate a crucial climate parameter we still calculate today – the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) – how much the world would warm (from ‘pre-industrial’ levels) with a doubling of CO2 — and concluded that it had a range of 1.5 – 4.5°C.

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Weather’s unwanted guest: Nasty La Niña keeps popping up, confounding climate modellers

What’s bothering many scientists is that their go-to climate simulation models that tend to get conditions right over the rest of the globe predict more El Ninos, not La Ninas, and that’s causing contention in the climate community about what to believe

Encapsulated in that one sentence is everything wrong with climate religion science. Maybe if data hadn’t been so persecuted for not confirming to the beliefs of Gaia’s devout..?

Tallbloke's Talkshop


When observations show modellers ‘the opposite of what their best computer model simulations say should be happening with human-caused climate change’, it’s surely time to revisit their assumptions. Meanwhile, much head-scratching.
– – –
Something weird is up with La Nina, the natural but potent weather event linked to more drought and wildfires in the western United States and more Atlantic hurricanes, says Phys.org.

It’s becoming the nation’s unwanted weather guest and meteorologists said the West’s megadrought won’t go away until La Nina does.

The current double-dip La Nina set a record for strength last month and is forecast to likely be around for a rare but not quite unprecedented third straight winter. And it’s not just this one.

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Does The UK Subsidise Fossil Fuels?

UK oil and gas producers pay tax at a much higher rate than the rest of UK industry. In particular:

They pay Corporation Tax at a rate of 30%, instead of the standard rate of 19%.

They also have to pay a Supplementary Charge of 10% on profits

“But it’s a subsi..reeeeeeee”
https://weatheraction.files.wordpress.com/2022/04/wp-1650804719352.jpg

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2022/04/23/renewable-subsidies-have-cost-78-billion-in-last-10-years/

.

There has long been a concerted effort by the green lobby to persuade the public that they are paying billions in subsidies to the nasty fossil fuel industry, particularly in the UK. The above comment exemplifies this.

He quotes the OECD, who are of course at heart a political organisation, just like their subsidiary, the IEA. The OECD simply follow their masters wishes, that is the governments who make it up. The OECD’s position on climate change is exactly the same as its member governments:

image

https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/inventory-of-estimated-budgetary-support-and-tax-expenditures-for-fossil-fuels-2013_9789264187610-en#page17

As Rafal comments, the OECD regard “tax reliefs” as “subsidies”. They are no such thing, and the OECD is deliberately misleading people in claiming so.

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Temps Cause CO2 Changes, Not the Reverse. 2022 Update

I was listening to a Delingpod earlier this week and the Co2 leads temperature canard came out. I immediately thought of Salby’s work and the geological record, but with the smoothing and difficulties with precision for icecores it’s nice to see something with real time data to see it in effect (even if the adjustments to the temperature record are a bit disconcerting).

A fascinating post. Great work Ron.

The IPCC doctrine which has long been promoted goes as follows. We have a number over here for monthly fossil fuel CO2 emissions, and a number over there for monthly atmospheric CO2. We don’t have good numbers for the rest of it-oceans, soils, biosphere–though rough estimates are orders of magnitude higher, dwarfing human CO2. So we ignore nature and assume it is always a sink, explaining the difference between the two numbers we do have. Easy peasy, science settled.

What about the fact that nature continues to absorb about half of human emissions, even while FF CO2 increased by 60% over the last 2 decades? What about the fact that in 2020 FF CO2 declined significantly with no discernable impact on rising atmospheric CO2?

Science Matters

This post is about proving that CO2 changes in response to temperature changes, not the other way around, as is often claimed.  In order to do  that we need two datasets: one for measurements of changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations over time and one for estimates of Global Mean Temperature changes over time.

Climate science is unsettling because past data are not fixed, but change later on.  I ran into this previously and now again in 2021 and 2022 when I set out to update an analysis done in 2014 by Jeremy Shiers (discussed in a previous post reprinted at the end).  Jeremy provided a spreadsheet in his essay Murray Salby Showed CO2 Follows Temperature Now You Can Too posted in January 2014. I downloaded his spreadsheet intending to bring the analysis up to the present to see if the results hold up.  The two sources of data were:

Temperature…

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The Cat Has Caught Up With What I Was Saying About Covid & Climate In 2020

Grifters gonna grift, but it has never been about the koof… or the climate.

https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2020/03/17/watch-coronavirus-and-climate-change-propagandawatch/

climatecontrarian

Not wishing to blow my own trumpet, I shall content myself with strumming gently and forlornly upon my own little violin. I was saying nearly two years ago (actually it was two years ago) that Covid and Climate Change were basically two sides of the same coin and both thus essentially socio-political agendas hijacking ‘science’ in order to inject their false prospectus deep into our lives (and even, as it turned out, our actual bodies). Very few listened to me and quite a few criticised me, often in less than polite terms.

In April 2020 I wrote this article:

They got it…

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Met Office: Why Storm Eunice was so severe, and will violent wind storms become more common?

The Science™️ This is just like the fun with the polar vortex a few years ago, despite being well known about in the 1970s, but created instant media coverage as "experts" in The Science™️ immediately linked it with 🎶 ominous music plays 🎶 Climate Change. It's been Sudden Stratospheric Warmings, the Indian Dipole, El Nino … Continue reading Met Office: Why Storm Eunice was so severe, and will violent wind storms become more common?

Frozen Turkey, snow havoc in southeast Europe

Tallbloke's Talkshop


‘Climate crisis’ latest: too much snow and severe cold at night in parts of the Mediterranean region.
– – –
Europe’s busiest airport shut down in Istanbul on Monday while schools and vaccination centres closed in Athens as a rare snowstorm blanketed swathes of the eastern Mediterranean, causing blackouts and traffic havoc, reports Phys.org.

The closure of Istanbul Airport — where the roof of one of the cargo terminals collapsed under heavy snow, causing no injuries — grounded flights stretching from the Middle East and Africa to Europe and Asia.

Travel officials told AFP it marked the glass-and-steel structure’s first shutdown since it replaced Istanbul’s old Ataturk Airport as the new hub for Turkish Airlines in 2019.

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Europe’s Energy Crisis Is About to Get Worse as Winter Arrives

It’s not looking good that’s for sure!

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

Energy prices in Europe are repeatedly breaking records even before winter really kicks in, and one of the most damaging cost crunches in history is about to get worse as the temperature starts to drop.

A super price spike in the U.K. last month forced some industrial companies to cut production and seek state aid, a harbinger for what could play out widely in Europe just as it contends with a resurgence of the coronavirus. For governments, it could mean tension with neighboring countries by moving to protect supplies. For households, it could mean being asked to use less energy or even plan for rolling blackouts.

The trouble is that any fix is unlikely to come from the supply side any time soon, with exporters Russia piping only what it has to and Qatar saying it’s producing what it can. The energy industry is instead faced with…

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#GreenColonialism : “600 million Africans have no lights”

Alex Epstein is trying to highlight lesser heard voices from poorer nations about the need for access to cheap reliable energy, highlighted by Nigerian Vice President Yemi Osinbajo who recently wrote: limiting the development of fossil fuel projects and, in particular, natural gas projects would have a profoundly negative impact on Africa. Natural gas doesn't … Continue reading #GreenColonialism : “600 million Africans have no lights”

BBC boss claims climate change no longer ‘politically controversial issue’

We redefined “what the peer review literature is”
We cancelled dissenting voices
We black balled editors who didn’t publish what we wanted
We ostracised anyone who went against the narrative
We removed discussions in newpapers comment sections
We call anyone who doesn’t agree with our agenda in collusion with Big Oil and call them names.
We write attack articles on anyone who doesn’t agree with us

Yep. The Science™ is settled.

There is no controversy.

🤔

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Maybe not for most paid politicians, but among the population at large there’s plenty of controversy. But the BBC won’t air the public’s views any more, unless favourable to its own alarmist climate propaganda. The media plan is to produce more ‘climate change storytelling’, which sounds like another good reason to not switch them on, or switch off.
– – –
The director-general of the BBC has said climate change is no longer a ‘politically controversial’ issue, reports the Daily Mail (via msn.com).

Tim Davie made the comment while speaking as part of a panel that coincided with Cop26.

He said: ‘The overwhelming consensus is that we, as humanity, are causing global warming. There are voices on the fringes but, in my view, when it comes to due impartiality for the BBC, we are now at a point where we have consensus around that.

‘But then you do get…

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A Theory of the Hack

A fascinating read of what went on in 2009 ahead of Copenhagen…and it wasn’t “Russian intel services or US fossil fuel corporations”

Climate Audit

Two major new BBC programs, The Trick and the Hack That Changed The World, re-visit 2009 Climategate events on the eve of UK hosting the most recent international climate get-together. I was interviewed by The Hack and mentioned in The Trick as a villain.

In today’s article, I’m going to propose a theory of the Climategate hack that is very different from the grandiose conspiracy of Russian intel services and US fossil fuel corporations that is the prevalent fantasy of the climate “community” and chattering classes. Subsequent to my interview with the Hack That Changed, I’ve re-examined and cross-checked documents and noticed some interesting new connections. I don’t know the identity of the Climategate hacker, but do believe that deductions about his profile (e.g. motivated individual vs paid institutional hacker) can be made more intelligently by carefully examining details of what was exfiltrated and when – as I shall do…

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Parody Unbound: UKHSA, in Seeking To Explain Away Why Jabbed Infection Rate is More Than Twice Unjabbed Inadvertently Reveal the Reason: The Unjabbed still have Natural Immunity!

This epitomises the absolute 🤡 🌍 we live in.

The medical/political spin is just like the Black Knight from Monty Python’s Holy Grail 🤣

climatecontrarian

You can’t make this up anymore; you just can’t. This is so bizarre, it’s like Alice in Wonderland meets the Twilight Zone.

The UKHSA are gnashing their teeth over what their own raw data reveals; that in all double-jabbed people over the age of 30, the infection rate of SARS-CoV-2 virus, according to PCR testing, significantly exceeds that of the unjabbed and in people over 40, the rate of infection in the jabbed is more than twice that of the unjabbed, except for the over 80s. This has proved deeply embarrassing for the UK government and now they are desperately attempting to explain away their inconvenient data as due to confounding factors rather than it being inherently due to the administration of the ‘vaccines’. Eugyppius has kindly provided a graph of the differences in infection rates, which the UKHSA has failed to provide itself in their latest report, presumably…

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Gulf Stream and Kuroshio Current found to be synchronized on decadal time scale

Interesting

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Credit: NOAA

Researchers propose another weather/climate cycle.
– – –
A team of researchers with members affiliated with a large number of institutions across Japan has found that the Gulf stream and Kuroshio are synchronized on a decadal time scale, says Phys.org.

In their paper published in the journal Science, the group describes their study of decades of weather satellite data and the link between the two ocean currents.

Paola Cessi, with the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, has published a Perspective piece on the work done by the team in Japan in the same journal issue.

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South Pole froze over in coldest winter on record

Worth bearing in mind that this record is less than 3 hale cycles long but interestingly 2 hale cycles ago (1976) lies the previous record 🤔

Whatever the cause it’s not melting away.

Between April and September, a research station sitting on a high plateau in Antarctica, registered an average temperature of minus 78 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 61 degrees Celsius).

That’s the coldest temperature recorded since record keeping began in 1957, and about 4.5 F (2.5 C) lower than the most recent 30-year average

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Antarctic sea ice [image credit: BBC] We’re asked to believe this is just a blip in the relentless march of supposedly human-caused global warming, but let’s give it a few more years to see how things progress.
– – –
Antarctica’s frigid winter temperatures are in contrast to trends in the rest of the world, which overall recorded its fourth hottest summer, says LiveScience.

Between April and September, a research station sitting on a high plateau in Antarctica, registered an average temperature of minus 78 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 61 degrees Celsius).

That’s the coldest temperature recorded since record keeping began in 1957, and about 4.5 F (2.5 C) lower than the most recent 30-year average, according to The Washington Post.

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Earth Can Make Auroras Without Solar Activity

“We have found a totally new way that particle energy can be transferred from Earth’s own atmosphere out to the magnetosphere and back again, creating a giant feedback loop in space.”

Spaceweather.com

Sept. 24, 2021: No solar storms? No problem. Earth has learned to make its own auroras. New results from NASA’s THEMIS-ARTEMIS spacecraft show that a type of Northern Lights called “diffuse auroras” comes from our own planet–no solar storms required.

Diffuse auroras look a bit like pea soup. They spread across the sky in a dim green haze, sometimes rippling as if stirred by a spoon. They’renot as flamboyant as auroras caused by solar storms. Nevertheless, they are important because they represent a whopping 75% of the energy input into Earth’s upper atmosphere at night. Researchers have been struggling to understand them for decades.

Above: Diffuse auroras and the Big Dipper, photographed by Emmanuel V. Masongsong in Fairbanks, AK

“We believe we have found the source of these auroras,” says UCLA space physicist Xu Zhang, lead author of papers reporting the results in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics

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