The Chance of Storms Just Doubled

Québec [1989] was once thought to be a 100 year storm. Extreme value statistics suggest a different answer. “It’s more like 45 years,” says Love.

😵

Spaceweather.com

April 8, 2021: If you think you are safe from geomagnetic storms, think again. A new study just published in the journal Space Weather finds that powerful storms may be twice as likely as previously thought.

Jeffrey Love of the US Geological Survey, who authored the study, analyzed Earth’s strongest geomagnetic storms since the early 1900s. Previous studies looked back only to the 1950s. The extra data led to a surprise:

“A storm as intense as, say, the Québec Blackout of 1989 is predicted to occur, on average, about every four solar cycles. This is twice as often as estimated using only the traditional shorter dataset,” says Love.

Above: The data Love used in his extreme value analysis. Red and blue circles denote the two strongest storms in each solar cycle. Dst is a measure of geomagnetic activity that can be estimated from old magnetogram chart recordings.

A study like…

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France to declare agricultural ‘disaster’ over spring frost

France could do with some of that global heating we keep hearing about.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

FRANCE-AGRICULTURE-WEATHER-VINEYARD A winegrower lights anti-frost candles in a French vineyard [image credit: thelocal.fr] Government policy is to try and make the climate cooler. Now read on.
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The French government is to declare an agricultural disaster over an unusual early spring frost that has damaged crops and vines across the country, the agriculture minister said. Phys.org reporting.

Julien Denormandie told Franceinfo radio late Thursday that the cold snap had been “particularly difficult” for the sector with “significant losses” registered.

“We are completely mobilised so that the accompanying measures can be put in place as quickly as possible,” he said.

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New study ties solar variability to the onset of decadal La Niña events

From the conclusion:

We have tried to avoid discussion of causation, which, due to its controversial nature could lead to dismissal of the empirical relationship, and we want open a broader scientific discussion of solar coupling to the Earth and its environment. Nevertheless, independent of the exact coupling mechanisms, the question must be asked, why has the pattern occurred and reoccurred regularly for the past five solar cycles, or 60 years? We have only a few months at most to wait to see if this Terminator‐ENSO relation continues at the onset of the coming solar cycle 25. Should this next terminator be associated with a swing to La Niña then we must seriously consider the capability of coupled global terrestrial modeling efforts to capture “step‐function” events, and assess how complex the Sun‐Earth connection is, with particular attention to the relationship between incoming cosmic rays and clouds and precipitation over our oceans.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020EA001223

Jaime Jessop pulled out some more detail from the study:

What’s interesting is that the authors identify the past several decades as a ‘default El Nino like state’ when cloud cover in the Western Pacific has been depleted, coincident with a weakened Pacific Walker circulation and strengthened Brewer-Dobson circulation. During this period, they argue that ENSO has been uniquely sensitive to variations in solar activity:

Thus, over the past several decades the cloud pattern in the western Pacific has adopted an almost El Niño‐like default state, consistent with an observed eastward shift in precipitation in the tropical Pacific and weakening of the Walker circulation over the last century (Deser et al., 2004; Vecchi & Soden, 2007a), and which has been tied, via simple thermodynamics, to a warmer atmosphere.

Thus, it is entirely plausible that since changes in the (upper) atmosphere brought on by a strengthened Brewer‐Dobson circulation, weakened Pacific Walker circulation, and less cloudy Western Pacific, enables the relatively constant terminator‐driven changes to have sufficient “impact” to flip the system from El Niño to La Niña, independent of the actual mechanism that couples solar changes to clouds and ENSO.

The 2020 termination of the last Hale cycle, marked by the end of SC24 and beginning of SC25 is, according to Valentina Zharkhova, the beginning of a Maunder-like Minimum which will last from 2020-2053. If, as she suggests, global surface temperatures decline during this period, then we might expect the relationship between Terminator events and the switch from El Nino to La Nina to become less pronounced. The current progression of the Pacific to a La Nina may in fact be the beginning of a phase change from an ‘El Nino-like default state’ to a La Nina-like default state where, ironically, solar activity has less of an influence on central Pacific ocean surface temperatures.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

solar1 Solar activity [image credit: NASA]

What drives the weather can drive the climate. In this case the chances of non-correlation are said to be extremely low.

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A new study shows a correlation between the end of solar cycles and a switch from El Nino to La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean, suggesting that solar variability can drive seasonal weather variability on Earth, Phys.org reports.

If the connection outlined in the journal Earth and Space Science holds up, it could significantly improve the predictability of the largest El Nino and La Nina events, which have a number of seasonal climate effects over land.

For example, the southern United States tends to be warmer and drier during a La Nina, while the northern U.S. tends to be colder and wetter.

“Energy from the Sun is the major driver of our entire Earth system and makes life on Earth possible,”…

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Increasing Hurricane Frequency Due To Better Observation, Not Climate Change–BBC

Joe Biden has healed the planet!

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on 1 June. But over the past six years, significant storms have been forming earlier than this. So does the hurricane season need to start earlier – and is climate change to blame?

At a regional meeting of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) this week, meteorologists and officials will be discussing a possible change to how the hurricane season is defined.

“The 2020 hurricane season was one of the most challenging in the 40-year history of [the] WMO’s Tropical Cyclone Programme,” says WMO Secretary-General Prof Petteri Taalas.

“The record number of hurricanes combined with Covid-19 to create, literally, the perfect storm.”

The hurricane season has officially started on the 1 June since the mid-1960s, when hurricane reconnaissance planes would start routine trips into the Atlantic to spot storm development.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active on record with…

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A Closer Look at What Happened in Texas During the Deep Freeze:

These days, it seems like no matter what the weather does, someone makes an attempt to blame it on man-made climate change. This has become a commonplace in the mainstream news media, particularly within the last five years, and has disturbingly been perpetuated by a few atmospheric scientists with large public platforms. Scientists who have large social media followings play a very important role in science communication; it’s their job to communicate science as clearly and as effectively as possible, especially when there are large discrepancies between the headlines journalists spin up and what peer-reviewed papers actually suggest. Unfortunately, many scientists refuse to call out misinformation in the media simply because it hurts the cause for climate action. In other words, many prominent scientific voices are just political activists hiding behind the mask of a competent scientist.
[…]
Politics thoroughly corrupted climate science over 30 years ago, but it’s now beginning to corrupt energy policy and engineering, which is a far greater problem than the former. Billionaires own large media corporations, which means they control the flow of information. Whoever controls information controls society. Journalists will do anything to make a good headline that suits the agenda. They aren’t interested in truth, if they were, they’d allow opposing voices to be heard

A very comprehensive and balanced article by Chris Martz…if only the media allowed this kind of discussion, as they once did, we wouldn’t be suffering extraordinary levels of weather ignorance – which is precisely what allows political deviants to continue their machinations.

Chris Martz

“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”
— Benjamin Franklin

Meteorological Analysis

Three weeks ago, a major cold snap and series of winter storms enveloped the southern plains and parts of the Mississippi River Valley, sending temperatures below zero as far south as central Texas. According to NOAANCEI, a total of 8,632 daily record low temperatures — including both maximums and minimums — were set or tied from February 10-20, as opposed to only 262 daily warm records.¹ Additionally, a whopping 693 monthly record lows were set, 199 of which were all-time record lows. According to the NOAA Weather Prediction Center, over 30% of all of the official weather stations in the United States set at least record low maximum temperatures between February 14 and 16. Without a doubt, this was the coldest 10-day period that this part of the country had experienced in over…

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Iceland: could a volcanic period be ahead?

Whilst we can’t vouch for weather (which will be blamed for any cooling) some spectacular sunsets lie ahead if indeed Iceland’s volcanoes are once again awakening.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Lava fields of the Reykjanes Peninsula [image credit: Vincent van Zeijst @ Wikipedia]
24th February: ‘Southwestern Iceland was rocked by a series of earthquakes’, reported DW.com. ‘Experts say shocks from the quake, which registered 5.7 in magnitude, sparked increased volcanic activity, triggering a number of aftershocks registering over 4.0 for hours after the initial quake hit.

“It’s an intense activity zone, we are all well aware of that but I’ve never experienced or felt so many strong earthquakes in such a short period of time. It’s unusual,” as the Icelandic Meteorological Office’s (IMO) earthquake hazards coordinator Kristin Jonsdottir told Icelandic public broadcaster RUV.’

The article below appeared five days ago.
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“If an eruption occurs, it would likely mark the beginning of such a [volcanic] period – lasting a few centuries, I believe,” states Magnús Á. Sigurgeirsson, geologist at ÍSOR Iceland GeoSurvey – a consulting and research…

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Canceling the AMO

Wow. In one fell swoop, the pesky problems of the ‘grand hiatus’ in the mid 20th century, debates over the attribution of 20th century warming and the role of multidecadal internal variability, and the difficulty of attributing the recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity to AGW, all go away. Brilliant! Almost as ‘brilliant’ as the Hockey Stick.

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

Conclusion from Michael Mann’s new paper:  “We conclude that there is no compelling evidence for internal multidecadal oscillations in the climate system.”

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What if … A Perfect CME Hit Earth?

😳

Spaceweather.com

Jan. 21, 2021: You’ve heard of a “perfect storm.” But what about a perfect solar storm? A new study just published in the research journal Space Weather considers what might happen if a worst-case coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth. Spoiler alert: You might need a backup generator.

For years, researchers have been wondering, what’s the worst the sun could do? In 2014, Bruce Tsurutani (JPL) and Gurbax Lakhina (Indian Institute of Geomagnetism) introduced the “Perfect CME.” It would be fast, leaving the sun around 3,000 km/s, and aimed directly at Earth. Moreover, it would follow another CME, which would clear the path in front of it, allowing the storm cloud to hit Earth with maximum force.

None of this is fantasy. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has observed CMEs leaving the sun at speeds up to 3,000 km/s. And there are many documented cases of…

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The Earth has been spinning faster lately

In fact it’s unprecedented, in recent history at least. But 2021 is predicted to be even shorter. – – – Scientists around the world have noted that the Earth has been spinning on its axis faster lately—the fastest ever recorded, says Phys.org. Several scientists have spoken to the press about the unusual phenomenon, with some … Continue reading The Earth has been spinning faster lately

Noctilucent Clouds are Missing

The polar vortex over Antarctica continues unabated whilst the one over the Arctic is at record low levels about to undergo a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW).

We do live in interesting times.

Spaceweather.com

Dec. 28, 2020: Something strange is happening 50 miles above Antarctica. Or rather, not happening. Noctilucent clouds (NLCs), which normally blanket the frozen continent in December, are almost completely missing. These images from NASA’s AIM spacecraft compare Christmas Eve 2019 with Christmas Eve 2020:

“The comparison really is astounding,” says Cora Randall of the University of Colorado’s Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics. “Noctilucent cloud frequencies are close to zero this year.”

NLCs are Earth’s highest clouds. They form when summertime wisps of water vapor rise up from the poles to the edge of space. Water crystallizing around specks of meteor dust 83 km (~50 miles) above Earth’s surface creates beautiful electric-blue structures, typically visible from November to February in the south, and May to August in the north.

A crucial point: Noctilucent clouds form during summer. And that’s the problem. Although summer officially started in Antarctica one week…

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Patrick Wood: Technocracy Rising

From 2015 but more pertinent than ever since the rise of the China virus and global lockdown mandates emanating from certain echelons of academia spinning dodgy algorithms that somehow, completely by chance of course, have the ear of the W.H.O. and world governance 🤔

In the heat of the Great Depression during the 1930s, prominent scientists and engineers proposed a utopian energy-based economic system called Technocracy that would be run by those same scientists and engineers instead of elected politicians.

Although this radical movement lost momentum by 1940, it regained status when it was conceptually adopted by the elitist Trilateral Commission (co-founded by Zbigniew Brzezinski and David Rockefeller) in 1973 to be become its so-called “New International Economic Order.”

In the ensuing 41 years, the modern expression of Technocracy and the New International Economic Order is clearly seen in global programs such as Agenda 21, Sustainable Development, Green Economy, Councils of Governments, Smart Growth, Smart Grid, Total Awareness surveillance initiatives and more.

MalagaBay

Patrick Wood - Technocracy Rising

Patrick Wood is an author and lecturer who has studied Gobalization since the 1970s.

Patrick Wood is an author and lecturer who has studied elite globalization policies since the late 1970’s, when he partnered with the late Antony C. Sutton to co-author Trilaterals Over Washington, Volumes I and II.

He remains a leading expert on the elitist Trilateral Commission, their policies and achievements in creating their self-proclaimed “New International Economic Order.”

An economist by education, a financial analyst and writer by profession and an American Constitutionalist by choice, Wood maintains a Biblical world view and has deep historical insights into the modern attacks on sovereignty, property rights and personal freedom.

Such attacks are epitomized by the implementation of U.N. policies such as Agenda 21, Sustainable Development, Smart Growth and in education, the widespread adoption of Common Core State Standards.

Wood is a frequent speaker and guest on radio shows around…

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Record Heat In California Claims Not Supported By Data

Fraud is endemic, one could say baked into the system, in Cali.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

In the midst of the state’s most destructive wildfire season, California shattered temperature records in August, September and October.

All three months were the state’s warmest on record, according to a new report by UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain.

“The long-term warming trend during the peak of fire season in California has been especially pronounced,” Swain said on Twitter, “and 2020 really puts an exclamation point on that.”

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-11-07/california-shatters-fall-temperature-records

The report linked gives this map showing that the £record heat” was principally along the coast in October:

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Climate scientists fly more than other researchers, first global study suggests

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Climate conference transport
It takes more than a ‘climate emergency’ to keep climatologists on the ground. It’s almost like they don’t take their own theories seriously, although professors not travelling isn’t going to make any difference anyway. Do as they say, not as they do.
– – –
Climate change researchers, especially professors, fly more than other researchers—but are also more likely to have taken steps to reduce or offset their flying, a new study has found.

Climate change researchers, especially professors, fly more than other researchers—but are also more likely to have taken steps to reduce or offset their flying, a new study has found.

The large, international survey of more than 1,400 university researchers was carried out by the UK Centre for Climate and Social Transformation (CAST), which is coordinated by Cardiff University, reports Phys.org.

A follow-up experiment with more than 350 researchers found that providing information…

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Solar Cycle 25 is here, says NASA

IIRC SC24 was called more than once so is this the minimum? Time will tell.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

The Sun from NASA’s SDO spacecraft
Solar Cycle 25 has begun, according to this NASA press release.

During a media event on Tuesday, experts from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) discussed their analysis and predictions about the new solar cycle – and how the coming upswing in space weather will impact our lives and technology on Earth, as well as astronauts in space.

The Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, an international group of experts co-sponsored by NASA and NOAA, announced that solar minimum occurred in December 2019, marking the start of a new solar cycle.

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Facebook launches a ‘climate change information’ centre

Facebook watermelons might get offended if you don’t kneel to the #ClimateCult. Thankfully their AlGorerithms haven’t quite mastered censoring memes so the message can still get out there.
https://weatheraction.files.wordpress.com/2020/09/inshot_20200914_223333352.mp4

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Earth and climate – an ongoing controversy
Facebook, accountable only to its investors, now intends to pose as a proxy authority on the world’s present and future climate. But the author of the article below wants Facebook to go further and impose its own views on people, while hiding behind the usual catch-all accusation of ‘climate change denialism’ but offering no definition of it. Presumably suggesting that a carbon dioxide level of 0.04% in the atmosphere might not be a massive climate problem is beyond the pale, and should be suppressed? Without clarity about what is out of bounds in discussion, the risk of unfair censorship is obvious.
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Even as Facebook, the world’s largest social media platform, admits that climate change “is real” and that “the science is unambiguous and the need to act grows more urgent by the day” the platform appears unwilling to take steps…

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Met Office Caught Cheating Over Wind Speed “Records”

research has become central; it also becomes more formalized, complex, and costly. A steadily increasing share is conducted for, by, or at the direction of, the Federal government.

Today, the solitary inventor, tinkering in his shop, has been overshadowed by task forces of scientists in laboratories and testing fields. In the same fashion, the free university, historically the fountainhead of free ideas and scientific discovery, has experienced a revolution in the conduct of research. Partly because of the huge costs involved, a government contract becomes virtually a substitute for intellectual curiosity. For every old blackboard there are now hundreds of new electronic computers.

The prospect of domination of the nation’s scholars by Federal employment, project allocations, and the power of money is ever present

and is gravely to be regarded. Yet, in holding scientific research and discovery in respect, as we should, we must also be alert to the equal and opposite danger that public policy could itself become the captive of a scientifictechnological elite…

President Dwight D. Eisenhower, January 17, 1961

We are a society with profound amnesia of the past, sadly led by our institutions who seem intent on erasure rather than understanding because it does not suit their ideological purposes – pushing the climate change meme because it fits so well with the global authorian agenda.

We can only hope the tide soon turns from this fanaticism and back to the truth of scientific wonder and discovery that we had before the clamour of global cooling and warming, fueled by the scent of money and power, led to the corruption of the field which is what has led to the nonsense of claiming August wind “records” based on a paucity of actual data.

The Met Office does have some good people who now really need to speak up and bring balance because when the dam breaks against them they need to make sure the zealots do not take everything with them. Zealots who are currently running amok, redefining what is real and observed whilst purging institutions of non-believers. They have no desire to understand the climate or weather, it is only a means to an end. Their fanaticism will always supercede the science and we ignore the warnings of the past at our peril.

The Lysenko story serves as a powerful warning against the collusion of ideology and science, a threat that is very much with us today.

Lysenkoism
Mark Pilkington / The Guardian
Thu 11 Sep 2003

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2003/sep/11/research.highereducation

You only have to read what happened to Cliff Mass to see the future that awaits if something does not change.

Now I have probably written more papers and done more research on Northwest weather and climate than any other individual. I know the literature. I attend the seminars. I wrote on book on NW weather and climate. I have spent a lifetime learning about it. But a bunch of climate activists, such as groups like 350.org decided they knew better. They were particularly unhappy when I exposed some of the hype and exaggeration promulgated by the activist crowd (e.g., that climate change is a short-term existential threat to mankind). There were also some wealthy, activist KNKX donors that were unhappy with my blog. These climate activists demanded that I talk about “existential climate threats” on KNKX [Radio] and stop my climate fact checking on my blog. I was a threat to them: knowledgeable, credible, and with access to the media. And they wanted that to end.

Cliff Mass
My Firing at KNKX
Thursday, August 13, 2020

https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/08/my-firing-at-knkx.html?

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

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image_thumb-96

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/08/25/storm-francis/

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You will recall my astonishment regarding Met Office claims that Storm Francis brought the highest ever gusts for August to parts of Britain this week. The claim was, of course, widely reported in the media, such as this grossly false claim by ITV:

image

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-08-25/highest-ever-gusts-of-wind-recorded-in-august-as-storm-francis-lashes-uk

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As several readers pointed out, what about the infamous Fastnet storm in 1979, or Hurricane Charley in 1986?

So I asked the Met Office how far back their records went for Aberdaron, Vyrnwy and Pembrey Sands. Given their reputation for deceiving the public, I can’t say I was surprised by their answer!

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image

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In other words, none of these three stations had data for those earlier storms, and claims of “record” anything are utterly meaningless therefore.

So I also asked for Shobden and Pershore, and got more or less the same answer:

image

Pershore, by the way, only has…

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Science is NOT about Consensus

He could offer no acceptable scientific explanation for his findings, and some doctors were offended at the suggestion that they should wash their hands and mocked him for it.

Nothing ever changes, except that now the superstition that we call consensus is laundered by machines to stitch new cloth for the naked emperors of science.

MalagaBay

Newsflash; real science is based on facts not “consensus”.

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Is California’s Heatwave Really So Hot?

in what some extreme weather watchers believe could be the hottest reading ever reliably recorded on the planet.

If you consider the past, and that our forebears were not complete blithering scientific neanderthals, you could easily comment on the belief this measurement is amoung the hottest ever recorded since records began in the Late Victorian era. The reliability of information is always open to question when there is a confluence with political and personal ideology – then as now.

https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2020/08/20/death-valley-update/

The most effective way to destroy people is to deny and obliterate their own understanding of their history.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

A temperature of 54.4C – or 129.9F – has been recorded in Death Valley, California, in what some extreme weather watchers believe could be the hottest reading ever reliably recorded on the planet.

The United States National Weather Service’s automated weather station at Furnace Creek near the border with Nevada hit the extreme high at 3:41pm on Sunday afternoon, a statement said.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/aug/17/death-valley-temperature-rises-to-544c-possibly-the-hottest-ever-reliably-recorded

The heat wave across the western United States is expected to last until Wednesday

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8634079/Death-Valley-hits-130-DEGREES-hottest-temperature-107-years.html

The heatwave in California has been making the news this week, and it is also being blamed for rolling blackouts in the state. But has it been exceptionally hot?

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