If natural cycles cannot be predicted they cannot be subtracted from observations to give us man’s influence on climate.
Previous posts have dealt with science as a mode of inquiry, and described the process of theory and observation by which scientific knowledge is obtained. This post presents work by Andy May to classify the degrees of scientific certainty or truth, and apply these to climate claims.
The essay Facts and Theories comes from his blog Andy May Petrophysicist.
Excerpts below with my bolds.
Categories of Scientific Knowledge
Newton provided us with his descriptive “Law of Gravitation.” Newton’s law tells us what gravity does and it is very useful, but it tells us nothing about how it works. For that we need Einstein’s theory of relativity. Theories and laws are not necessarily related in science. A law simply describes what happens without describing why. A scientific theory attempts to explain why a relationship holds true.
In the scientific community, for both a law and a theory, a single conflicting experiment…
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When scientist go off script
9:16 AM 09/20/2017
A climate model expert told The Washington Post there would be “extra eyes really scrutinizing” a new study claiming climate models predicted more global warming than has been observed this century.
And he was right.
Climate scientists have rushed to criticize a study published in the journal Nature Geoscience, which found that less warming in the early 20th Century suggests it’s slightly easier — though still difficult — to meet to goals of the Paris accord.
One would think climate scientists, especially those alarmed about warming, would see this as positive, but prominent researchers were quick to express their skepticism of results questioning the integrity of climate models.
Penn State University climate scientist Michael Mann told Seeker he was “rather skeptical” of the research. Mann doubted meeting the Paris accord goal of keeping future warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial…
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Like most records, the paucity of data and the non standardisation of recording techniques means we are often comparing apples to bricks. Whilst models are a good tool for analysis and understanding (not forecasting or projecting) we still have much to learn from the past and it seems that the interest in that is not on the academic community, who rely on the former, but in the online community of the curious.
As H.H. Lamb said;
…it was clear that the first and greatest need was to establish the facts of the past record of the natural climate in times before any side effects of human activities could well be important.
By Paul Homewood
With Hurricane Maria tearing heading towards Puerto Rico, there will be yet more alarmist claims about how climate change is making hurricanes worse.
Maria is the fourth major hurricane in the Atlantic this year, following Harvey, Irma and Jose. But how unusual is this?
Fortunately we don’t have to rely on Al Gore or Jennifer Lawrence. The reality is that it is not unusual at all.
Leading tropical cyclone expert, Chris Landsea of NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division has put together a list of Atlantic storms back to 1851.
This is what he has to say:
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There are numerous climate models and each is extremely expensive. That there are numerous models, that they originally (before comparison) gave significantly different results, and that they are compared, with none hailed as definitive, shows that climate modelers know no model can predict climate, they just want to have their own, for publication and funding advantage. Climate modelers then say that because most of these models now show global warming that proves global warming. However, this ignores that scientists are all-too-human and don’t want to be outliers — after comparison they literally tuned their climate models (this is easily done) to give results more like the rest of the herd. Plus they even started with an assumed result (warming), which is well-known in science to skew results toward that assumption.
The other theory is of course that the models predicted cash.
Computer modelling used a decade ago to predict how quickly global average temperatures would rise may have forecast too much warming, a study has found.
Myles Allen, professor of geosystem science at the University of Oxford and one of the study’s authors told The Times: “We haven’t seen that rapid acceleration in warming after 2000 that we see in the models. We haven’t seen that in the observations.”
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By Paul Homewood
While Hurricane Maria continues this year’s run of hurricanes, it is worth reading this Telegraph article from Sep 8th. It certainly makes a refreshing change from the wearying drivel written by Jillian Ambrose and co:
The destruction left by hurricanes Irma and Harvey has left many wondering why this year has been particularly bad for disastrous weather.
Harvey pummeled Texas, while Irma has been barrelling through the Carribbean and Bahamas, hurtling towards Florida.
Many thousands of homes have been destroyed and lives have been lost after the worst hurricanes seen for some years came in from the Atlantic Ocean.
The US expects hurricanes – they have a season of them every year – but not of this magnitude.
So why is it so bad? And can we expect more in the future? We asked scientists and other experts to explain.
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By Paul Homewood
Yesterday I reported on the latest attempt by the CCC to scare the public about worsening heatwaves.
According to PBC Today:
Now, the CCC has warned people could be at risk if action is not taken. According to the organisation, the number of deaths due to heat waves is set to more than triple by 2040. With 7,000 deaths a year expected to be attributed to deadly heatwaves, the CCC is calling on the government to act now.
The last real heatwave in the UK, July 2006, is often held up as an example of how many excess deaths occur in hot weather.
According to the Met Office, there were 680 excess deaths.
But how reliable are these guesstimates?
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