Winter 2017-18 Open Thread

This is the place for any tips, observations and general chat. This thread will be left open until next spring (and if winter prolongs like 2013 it'll stay a bit longer). 😁 I'll also try and keep a weekly diary of the weather which starts below and throw in some images where I can. The … Continue reading Winter 2017-18 Open Thread

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Piers Corbyn on UK Winter 2017-18

As the clock change looms, and or Sun slowly goes to sleep, winter 2017-18 is shaping up and WeatherAction's Piers Corbyn has given a taster of his initial winter thoughts reproduced below. 2013 was the last time much of the UK received substantial snow cover. Piers Corbyn, forecaster for WeatherAction, said the jet stream is … Continue reading Piers Corbyn on UK Winter 2017-18

Global agricultural boom: a million thanks to climate change

Increasing carbon dioxide has been a major driver of plant growth since the Little Ice Age. It contributed roughly $3.2 trillion worth of crop yield in 1960–2011 and can be expected to contribute another $9.8 trillion by 2050.

In other words, carbon dioxide is the elixir of life.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Planting rice [image credit: BBC]
As the report concludes: ‘Both global warming and carbon dioxide have benefitted plant growth, and both are important contributors to the success of modern civilization.’

Global cereal (grain) production has reached record levels in 2017, says The GWPF.

Credit for the increase usually goes to agrochemicals and other advanced agricultural technology. However, there are two other key contributors — carbon dioxide and climate change.

World cereal production for 2017 is projected to reach 2,613.3 million tons, 5.8 million tons above 2016’s level and nearly one-fourth higher than 2008’s. Despite population growth, production per capita rose 13 percent over the last decade, from 0.31 to 0.35 tons per person.

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The sun is blank, NASA data shows it to be dimming

Watts Up With That?

As the sun gets successively more blank with each day, due to lack of sunspots, it is also dimming. According to data from NASA’s Spaceweather, so far in 2017, 96 days (27%) of the days observing the sun have been without sunspots. Here is the view today from the NASA Solar Dynamics Observatory satellite:

Solar Dynamics Observatory HMI Continuum image more at WUWT’s solar reference page: https://wattsupwiththat.com/reference-pages/solar/

Today at Cape Canaveral, SpaceX launched a new sensor to the International Space Station named TSIS-1. Its mission: to measure the dimming of the sun’s irradiance. It will replace the aging SORCE spacecraft. NASA SDO reports that as the sunspot cycle plunges toward its 11-year minimum, NASA satellites are tracking a decline in total solar irradiance (TSI).

Across the entire electromagnetic spectrum, the sun’s output has dropped nearly 0.1% compared to the Solar Maximum of 2012-2014. This plot shows the TSI since 1978…

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Daily Telegraph Falls For Lord Deben’s Extreme Weather Scare

The first 20/years of the 20th Century were full of extremes for the British Isles and World War One was especially hard, but don’t expect journalists to know their history. They are just happy to copy and paste any old press release from the green blob rather than finding out what is available at their finger tips.

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

https://uk.linkedin.com/in/ashleyjkirk

To the long list of naive young Telegraph journalists, we can add the name of Ashley Kirk.

Last week he penned an article called “What is Britain doing to tackle flooding in the face of extreme weather? “ (Unfortunately behind the paywall).

Apparently primed by Lord Deben, he goes on to make apocalyptic predictions that the UK will be hit by a vicious combination of extreme storms, intense downpours and rising sea levels as it faces the next century. This is all apparently predicated on a couple of wet winters in recent years.

Because of climate change he claims that our flood defences simply won’t be able to cope with the extreme flooding coming our way.

He quotes Deben as saying that periods of intense rainfall could increase in frequency by a factor of five this century as global temperatures rise, and then goes…

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One starving bear is not evidence of climate change, despite gruesome photos

I’ve seen this picture spread mindlessly on social media.

polarbearscience

We finally have this year’s example of the new fad of claiming every polar bear that died of starvation (or on its way to starving to death) — and caught on film — is a victim of climate change: a young bear on Somerset Island near Baffin Island, Nunavut filmed in August during its last angonizing hours by members of an activist conservation organization called SeaLegacy.

‘I filmed with tears rolling down my cheeks’: Heart-breaking footage shows a starving polar bear on its deathbed struggling to walk on iceless land.” [actual title of article in the DailyMail Online, 8 December 2017]. CBC Radio (8 December 2017) jumped on it as well, as have others. National Geographic ran a similar story, like others, that compliantly emphasized the future man-made global warming threat the photographers were touting.

Baffin Island starving pb headline_GlobalNews_8 Dec 2017

This is no different from Ian Stirling’s“bear that died of…

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Oceans Cool Post Nino

Some well needed perspective on the oceans. Joe Bastardi keeps making the point that the accumulated energy in the oceans from the past few decades will take time to dissipate (volcanoes have always been the wildcard). However, it will prove interesting to see what happens from here as we go into a period of cooling.

https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2017/12/sunspotintegral.jpg

Science Matters

HadSST is generally regarded as the best of the global SST data sets, and so the temperature story here comes from that source, the latest version being HadSST3.

The chart below shows SST monthly anomalies as reported in HadSST3 starting in 2015 through November 2017.

After a steep drop in September, October temps bumped upward in response.  The rise was led by anomaly increases of about 0.06 in both the Tropics and SH, compared to drops of about 0.20 the previous month. NH was virtually the same as September. Global average anomaly changed as much as the Tropics and SH, but remained lower than the three previous Octobers.

Now in November, the downward trend has resumed. As will be shown in the analysis below, 0.4C has been the average global anomaly since 1995.

A longer view of SSTs

The graph below  is noisy, but the density is needed to see…

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