Winter 2017-18 Open Thread

This is the place for any tips, observations and general chat. This thread will be left open until next spring (and if winter prolongs like 2013 it'll stay a bit longer). 😁 [[5 Jan 18 - I believe this is a fair likelihood as any Sudden Stratospheric Warming [SSW] isn't happening soon and the real … Continue reading Winter 2017-18 Open Thread


Piers Corbyn on UK Winter 2017-18

As the clock change looms, and or Sun slowly goes to sleep, winter 2017-18 is shaping up and WeatherAction's Piers Corbyn has given a taster of his initial winter thoughts reproduced below. 2013 was the last time much of the UK received substantial snow cover. Piers Corbyn, forecaster for WeatherAction, said the jet stream is … Continue reading Piers Corbyn on UK Winter 2017-18

Extreme winter weather, such as ‘Beast from the East’, can be linked to solar cycle 

It’s the Sun what did it.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

UK winter weather forecast [image credit: BBC]
So says a new study, which also has the benefit of being topical. The current weak solar cycle is highlighted.

Periods of extreme cold winter weather and perilous snowfall, similar to those that gripped the UK in a deep freeze with the arrival of the ‘Beast from the East’, could be linked to the solar cycle, pioneering new research has shown.

A new study, led by Dr Indrani Roy from the University of Exeter, has revealed when the solar cycle is in its ‘weaker’ phase, there are warm spells across the Arctic in winter, as well as heavy snowfall across the Eurasian sector, reports

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Mystery of Purple Lights in Sky Solved With Help From Citizen Scientists


Watts Up With That?

STEVE and the Milky Way at Childs Lake, Manitoba, Canada. The picture is a composite of 11 images stitched together. Credit: Courtesy of Krista Trinder

Notanee Bourassa knew that what he was seeing in the night sky was not normal. Bourassa, an IT technician in Regina, Canada, trekked outside of his home on July 25, 2016, around midnight with his two younger children to show them a beautiful moving light display in the sky — an aurora borealis. He often sky gazes until the early hours of the morning to photograph the aurora with his Nikon camera, but this was his first expedition with his children. When a thin purple ribbon of light appeared and starting glowing, Bourassa immediately snapped pictures until the light particles disappeared 20 minutes later. Having watched the northern lights for almost 30 years since he was a teenager, he knew this wasn’t an aurora. It…

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CET Winter Trends

As Lamb wrote;

“I have always thought it a misfortune that the general introduction of plumbing into British homes coincided with the quite unusual run of mild winters between 1896 and 1936. And possibly some of the modern glass architecture and the hill-top sites with an open south-west aspect which became so desirable a few years ago seem less to be recommended in the 1950s.

We would do well to take heed and not foolishly believe what we see today will forever be.


By Paul Homewood


As promised, I have now some detailed analysis of the Central England Temperature Series, specifically winter trends.

As can be seen above, there has been an underlying trend increase since the start of the record in 1660. However, certain things stand out:

1) There have been other winters back in the past which have been just as warm as anything recently.

The warmest winter was actually 1868/9, with 1833/4 in third place behind 2016/7.

2) The 10-year average has been dropping away since it peaked in 2008, and is now back where it was in the 1970s, and indeed in 1739.

3) There is huge year to year variability throughout the series.

All of this tends to begs the question – how much of this trend is due to “weather”, as opposed to “climate”?

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Geometric clusters of cyclones churn over Jupiter’s poles

Could these be magnetically induced and how long have they persisted for?

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Cyclones in Jupiter’s atmosphere [image credit: NASA]
Octagon and pentagon (8:5) shapes at the poles, with groups of cyclones in a 9:6 (= 3:2) polar ratio. Fascinating.

Jupiter’s poles are blanketed by geometric clusters of cyclones and its atmosphere is deeper than scientists suspected, says

These are just some of the discoveries reported by four international research teams Wednesday, based on observations by NASA’s Juno spacecraft circling Jupiter.

One group uncovered a constellation of nine cyclones over Jupiter’s north pole and six over the south pole. The wind speeds exceed Category 5 hurricane strength in places, reaching 220 mph (350 kph).

The massive storms haven’t changed position much—or merged—since observations began.

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North Pacific climate patterns influence El Niño occurrences

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Image credit: NOAA
Another attempt to shed light on this recurring but tricky to predict climate phenomenon.

For decades, scientists have observed the phenomena known as El Niño and La Niña, says Both significantly impact the global climate and both pose a puzzle to scientists since they’re not completely understood.

Now, a new study clarifies some of the obscurity surrounding El Niño and La Niña, which together are called the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

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