Watch @adapt2030 “@Piers_Corbyn Astrophysicist: Uptick in Global Climate Events and What to Expect into 2023 (PART 1)”

David interviews Piers on his thoughts about what lies ahead. https://YouTube.com/watch?v=JRyi_tVWZ2I

Electric cars may make driving too expensive for middle classes, warns Vauxhall chief

“I can’t imagine a democratic society where there is no freedom of mobility because it’s only for wealthy people and all the others will use public transport.”

So no trips to recycling centers, no transportation for parents with young children (susceptible to the elements), 14m disabled people, parents with disabled children who may not qualify for government assistance but who rely on their cars to transport them, hospital and healthcare visits, rural communities etc…

It all doesn’t matter because:

You will own nothing and be happy.

🤔

Tallbloke's Talkshop

corsa-e Vauxhall Corsa-E [image credit: carmagazine.co.uk] Car makers are getting nervous about the high cost of electric cars compared to fuel burners. Sales figures for EVs aren’t impressive, and uncompetitive prices are just one of several negative factors. Being pushed around by climate-obsessed governments is causing problems, to say the least.
– – –
Driving could become the preserve of the rich as Britain and other countries around the world impose bans on diesel and petrol cars and embrace electrification, the boss of Vauxhall owner Stellantis has warned. The Telegraph/Yahoo Finance reporting.

A global rush to go electric could make cars too expensive for the middle classes, said Carlos Tavares, chief executive of the world’s fifth-biggest car maker – and it may even fail to significantly reduce carbon emissions because the vehicles are so much heavier than petrol ones.

The comments are the most outspoken public criticism of electrification by any…

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Study Concludes that Covid Sceptics are Smart, Sophisticated, Scientifically Literate and Very Dangerous!

A fascinating read into the mindset of the indoctrination in academia. They really got their knickers in a twist trying to wrangle this one.

climatecontrarian

This is probably one of the most amazing studies on Scepticism and Sceptics (Covid, in this case) I’ve ever read, which just blows away Lew’s clumsy and faltering attempts to mischaracterise and traduce climate sceptics. It really is a work of fine art which comes to all the ‘wrong’ conclusions about a group of people who formally question the official scientific narrative. Having done so it then proceeds to completely turn those conclusions (which are glowingly positive overall) upon their head to bizarrely argue for a negative interpretation of scepticism which is totally unjustified by their findings! I’ve never seen anything like it.

Before I give my own analysis of the study, here are some tweets from a person equally amazed by it:

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Adios, Global Warming

It will be interesting if a Niña develops again and how this would affect temperatures. However a large enough VEI eruption that pumps into the stratosphere would be a real source throw. Either way it’s not looking likely run away warming is anything to worry about in the next decade 🤔

Science Matters

a62edf0f39de560a219b7262163b0d45

The post below updates the UAH record of air temperatures over land and ocean.  But as an overview consider how recent rapid cooling has now completely overcome the warming from the last 3 El Ninos (1998, 2010 and 2016).  The UAH record shows that the effects of the last one are now gone as of April 2021. (UAH baseline is now 1991-2020).

UAH Global 1995to202104 w co2 overlayFor reference I added an overlay of CO2 annual concentrations as measured at Moana Loa.  While temperatures fluctuated up and down ending flat, CO2 went up steadily by ~55 ppm, a 15% increase.

Furthermore, going back to previous warmings prior to the satellite record shows that the entire rise of 0.8C since 1947 is due to oceanic, not human activity.

 

gmt-warming-events

The animation is an update of a previous analysis from Dr. Murry Salby.  These graphs use Hadcrut4 and include the 2016 El Nino warming event.  The exhibit…

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BBC’s Fake Victoria Falls Report

I had a rather good discussion with the late Dr Waheed Uddin, David Birch and Carlos Ramirez amongst others on this topic back in November 2019. As always history doesn’t support the narrative. Sadly some of the tweets are missing as they have either been deleted by Twitter’s overcensorious ban hammer or the user.

https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

h/t MrGrimNasty

image

In our monthly feature, Then and Now, we reveal some of the ways that planet Earth has been changing against the backdrop of a warming world. Here, we look at the effects of global heating on Victoria Falls, one of the natural wonders of the world – and how Sub-Saharan Africa is learning to cope with the climate crisis.

In full flow, Victoria Falls easily qualifies as one of the natural wonders of the world. Spanning 1.7km at its widest point and with a height of more than 100m, locals refer to Africa’s greatest waterfall as “the smoke that thunders”.

This amazing feature is formed as the Zambezi river plunges into a chasm called the First Gorge. The chasm was carved by the action of water along a natural fracture zone in the volcanic rock that makes up the landscape in this region of…

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Frostiest April for at least 60 years in UK

11 frosts, 4 falls of snow including one with over 50% snowcover at 9am.

Impressive. At least the latter part of the month has been pleasant in the sun, if not biting in the wind and shade.

Official blog of the Met Office news team

Frosty conditions have been common throughout April this year – Image: Shutterstock

April 2021 has provisionally been the frostiest in at least 60 yearsfor the UK, topping the previous frostiest April in 1970, with records going back to 1960.

April 2021 has already seen an average of 13 days of air frosts reported for the UK, topping the 11 days seen in April 1970. The frosty conditions have been replicated across the UK, with England (12 days), Wales (11 days) and Scotland (16 days) also reporting their frostiest April since it began being reported in 1960. Northern Ireland has currently seen 8 days of frost, not yet exceeding their current record of 11 days set in April 1983.  

Mark McCarthy, from the National Climate Information Centre,said, “We’ve been seeinga high frequencyof frosts overnight throughout April thanks largely to persistent clear skiesfor most. This will be reflected in the end of the month statistics, which are already showing above averagesunshine duration, as well as low minimum temperaturereadings overnight…

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Watch: The Metamorphosis of James Delingpole with Jay Dyer

Jay Dyer is not someone I'd heard of before this podcast and the first half hour does touch well upon the problem with the Green movement which is why it is posted. It's a very far ranging interview by Dellers, touching many subjects that a year ago would have seemed far fetched, but now in … Continue reading Watch: The Metamorphosis of James Delingpole with Jay Dyer

Solar Cycle Update

Willnwe have another double peak?

Spaceweather.com

April 16, 2021: You probably think Solar Cycle 25 is a dud. Think again. Despite long stretches of spotless quiet, the new solar cycle is actually running ahead of schedule. In this plot, the red curve shows NOAA’s predicted sunspot counts for Solar Cycle 25; the orange curve shows the new best fit:

Above: Observed and predicted sunspot numbers: more

“The sun is performing as we expected–maybe even a little better,” says Lisa Upton of Space Systems Research Corporation. She’s a co-chair of the NOAA/NASA Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel. “In 2019, the panel predicted that Solar Cycle 25 would peak in July 2025 (± 8 months) with a maximum sunspot count of 115 ± 10. The current behavior of the sun is consistent with an early onset near the beginning of our predicted range.”

If current trends hold, Solar Cycle 25 could peak as early as 2024, similar in…

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‘Obscene’ UK windfarm subsidies revealed

Once the inflation from the Covid fiat kicks in, especially in a cold winter when the winds are light, it will be choosing to heat or eat. The obscene theft of the public purse via subsidies is not sustainable.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

big-greenSome electricity consumers may feel like muttering obscenities if they see the figures. Meanwhile the BBC insists renewables are now cheaper than coal.
– – –
The Global Warming Policy Forum has condemned what it called the “obscenity” of windfarm subsidies and has called for a complete rethink of energy policy.

GWPF research has shown that just six offshore windfarms are now sharing £1.6 billion pounds in subsidies between them every year.

Three receive annual subsidies of over a quarter of a billion pounds each year.

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The Chance of Storms Just Doubled

Québec [1989] was once thought to be a 100 year storm. Extreme value statistics suggest a different answer. “It’s more like 45 years,” says Love.

😵

Spaceweather.com

April 8, 2021: If you think you are safe from geomagnetic storms, think again. A new study just published in the journal Space Weather finds that powerful storms may be twice as likely as previously thought.

Jeffrey Love of the US Geological Survey, who authored the study, analyzed Earth’s strongest geomagnetic storms since the early 1900s. Previous studies looked back only to the 1950s. The extra data led to a surprise:

“A storm as intense as, say, the Québec Blackout of 1989 is predicted to occur, on average, about every four solar cycles. This is twice as often as estimated using only the traditional shorter dataset,” says Love.

Above: The data Love used in his extreme value analysis. Red and blue circles denote the two strongest storms in each solar cycle. Dst is a measure of geomagnetic activity that can be estimated from old magnetogram chart recordings.

A study like…

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France to declare agricultural ‘disaster’ over spring frost

France could do with some of that global heating we keep hearing about.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

FRANCE-AGRICULTURE-WEATHER-VINEYARD A winegrower lights anti-frost candles in a French vineyard [image credit: thelocal.fr] Government policy is to try and make the climate cooler. Now read on.
—–
The French government is to declare an agricultural disaster over an unusual early spring frost that has damaged crops and vines across the country, the agriculture minister said. Phys.org reporting.

Julien Denormandie told Franceinfo radio late Thursday that the cold snap had been “particularly difficult” for the sector with “significant losses” registered.

“We are completely mobilised so that the accompanying measures can be put in place as quickly as possible,” he said.

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New study ties solar variability to the onset of decadal La Niña events

From the conclusion:

We have tried to avoid discussion of causation, which, due to its controversial nature could lead to dismissal of the empirical relationship, and we want open a broader scientific discussion of solar coupling to the Earth and its environment. Nevertheless, independent of the exact coupling mechanisms, the question must be asked, why has the pattern occurred and reoccurred regularly for the past five solar cycles, or 60 years? We have only a few months at most to wait to see if this Terminator‐ENSO relation continues at the onset of the coming solar cycle 25. Should this next terminator be associated with a swing to La Niña then we must seriously consider the capability of coupled global terrestrial modeling efforts to capture “step‐function” events, and assess how complex the Sun‐Earth connection is, with particular attention to the relationship between incoming cosmic rays and clouds and precipitation over our oceans.

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2020EA001223

Jaime Jessop pulled out some more detail from the study:

What’s interesting is that the authors identify the past several decades as a ‘default El Nino like state’ when cloud cover in the Western Pacific has been depleted, coincident with a weakened Pacific Walker circulation and strengthened Brewer-Dobson circulation. During this period, they argue that ENSO has been uniquely sensitive to variations in solar activity:

Thus, over the past several decades the cloud pattern in the western Pacific has adopted an almost El Niño‐like default state, consistent with an observed eastward shift in precipitation in the tropical Pacific and weakening of the Walker circulation over the last century (Deser et al., 2004; Vecchi & Soden, 2007a), and which has been tied, via simple thermodynamics, to a warmer atmosphere.

Thus, it is entirely plausible that since changes in the (upper) atmosphere brought on by a strengthened Brewer‐Dobson circulation, weakened Pacific Walker circulation, and less cloudy Western Pacific, enables the relatively constant terminator‐driven changes to have sufficient “impact” to flip the system from El Niño to La Niña, independent of the actual mechanism that couples solar changes to clouds and ENSO.

The 2020 termination of the last Hale cycle, marked by the end of SC24 and beginning of SC25 is, according to Valentina Zharkhova, the beginning of a Maunder-like Minimum which will last from 2020-2053. If, as she suggests, global surface temperatures decline during this period, then we might expect the relationship between Terminator events and the switch from El Nino to La Nina to become less pronounced. The current progression of the Pacific to a La Nina may in fact be the beginning of a phase change from an ‘El Nino-like default state’ to a La Nina-like default state where, ironically, solar activity has less of an influence on central Pacific ocean surface temperatures.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

solar1 Solar activity [image credit: NASA]

What drives the weather can drive the climate. In this case the chances of non-correlation are said to be extremely low.

—–

A new study shows a correlation between the end of solar cycles and a switch from El Nino to La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean, suggesting that solar variability can drive seasonal weather variability on Earth, Phys.org reports.

If the connection outlined in the journal Earth and Space Science holds up, it could significantly improve the predictability of the largest El Nino and La Nina events, which have a number of seasonal climate effects over land.

For example, the southern United States tends to be warmer and drier during a La Nina, while the northern U.S. tends to be colder and wetter.

“Energy from the Sun is the major driver of our entire Earth system and makes life on Earth possible,”…

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Increasing Hurricane Frequency Due To Better Observation, Not Climate Change–BBC

Joe Biden has healed the planet!

NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE KNOW THAT

By Paul Homewood

image

The Atlantic hurricane season officially begins on 1 June. But over the past six years, significant storms have been forming earlier than this. So does the hurricane season need to start earlier – and is climate change to blame?

At a regional meeting of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) this week, meteorologists and officials will be discussing a possible change to how the hurricane season is defined.

“The 2020 hurricane season was one of the most challenging in the 40-year history of [the] WMO’s Tropical Cyclone Programme,” says WMO Secretary-General Prof Petteri Taalas.

“The record number of hurricanes combined with Covid-19 to create, literally, the perfect storm.”

The hurricane season has officially started on the 1 June since the mid-1960s, when hurricane reconnaissance planes would start routine trips into the Atlantic to spot storm development.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active on record with…

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A Closer Look at What Happened in Texas During the Deep Freeze:

These days, it seems like no matter what the weather does, someone makes an attempt to blame it on man-made climate change. This has become a commonplace in the mainstream news media, particularly within the last five years, and has disturbingly been perpetuated by a few atmospheric scientists with large public platforms. Scientists who have large social media followings play a very important role in science communication; it’s their job to communicate science as clearly and as effectively as possible, especially when there are large discrepancies between the headlines journalists spin up and what peer-reviewed papers actually suggest. Unfortunately, many scientists refuse to call out misinformation in the media simply because it hurts the cause for climate action. In other words, many prominent scientific voices are just political activists hiding behind the mask of a competent scientist.
[…]
Politics thoroughly corrupted climate science over 30 years ago, but it’s now beginning to corrupt energy policy and engineering, which is a far greater problem than the former. Billionaires own large media corporations, which means they control the flow of information. Whoever controls information controls society. Journalists will do anything to make a good headline that suits the agenda. They aren’t interested in truth, if they were, they’d allow opposing voices to be heard

A very comprehensive and balanced article by Chris Martz…if only the media allowed this kind of discussion, as they once did, we wouldn’t be suffering extraordinary levels of weather ignorance – which is precisely what allows political deviants to continue their machinations.

Chris Martz

“By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”
— Benjamin Franklin

Meteorological Analysis

Three weeks ago, a major cold snap and series of winter storms enveloped the southern plains and parts of the Mississippi River Valley, sending temperatures below zero as far south as central Texas. According to NOAANCEI, a total of 8,632 daily record low temperatures — including both maximums and minimums — were set or tied from February 10-20, as opposed to only 262 daily warm records.¹ Additionally, a whopping 693 monthly record lows were set, 199 of which were all-time record lows. According to the NOAA Weather Prediction Center, over 30% of all of the official weather stations in the United States set at least record low maximum temperatures between February 14 and 16. Without a doubt, this was the coldest 10-day period that this part of the country had experienced in over…

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Iceland: could a volcanic period be ahead?

Whilst we can’t vouch for weather (which will be blamed for any cooling) some spectacular sunsets lie ahead if indeed Iceland’s volcanoes are once again awakening.

Tallbloke's Talkshop

Lava fields of the Reykjanes Peninsula [image credit: Vincent van Zeijst @ Wikipedia]
24th February: ‘Southwestern Iceland was rocked by a series of earthquakes’, reported DW.com. ‘Experts say shocks from the quake, which registered 5.7 in magnitude, sparked increased volcanic activity, triggering a number of aftershocks registering over 4.0 for hours after the initial quake hit.

“It’s an intense activity zone, we are all well aware of that but I’ve never experienced or felt so many strong earthquakes in such a short period of time. It’s unusual,” as the Icelandic Meteorological Office’s (IMO) earthquake hazards coordinator Kristin Jonsdottir told Icelandic public broadcaster RUV.’

The article below appeared five days ago.
– – –
“If an eruption occurs, it would likely mark the beginning of such a [volcanic] period – lasting a few centuries, I believe,” states Magnús Á. Sigurgeirsson, geologist at ÍSOR Iceland GeoSurvey – a consulting and research…

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Canceling the AMO

Wow. In one fell swoop, the pesky problems of the ‘grand hiatus’ in the mid 20th century, debates over the attribution of 20th century warming and the role of multidecadal internal variability, and the difficulty of attributing the recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity to AGW, all go away. Brilliant! Almost as ‘brilliant’ as the Hockey Stick.

Climate Etc.

by Judith Curry

Conclusion from Michael Mann’s new paper:  “We conclude that there is no compelling evidence for internal multidecadal oscillations in the climate system.”

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Iceland Volcano Awakens for First Time Since Middle Ages

Iceland has been pretty quiet for the past decade bar Bardarbunga stinking things up a bit in 2014 but that does seem to be about to change. March-April is usually the time Icelandic volcanoes awaken as we saw with the eruption of Eyjafjallajökull in April 2010 (similar solar cycle period) which affected air traffic, although … Continue reading Iceland Volcano Awakens for First Time Since Middle Ages

What if … A Perfect CME Hit Earth?

😳

Spaceweather.com

Jan. 21, 2021: You’ve heard of a “perfect storm.” But what about a perfect solar storm? A new study just published in the research journal Space Weather considers what might happen if a worst-case coronal mass ejection (CME) hit Earth. Spoiler alert: You might need a backup generator.

For years, researchers have been wondering, what’s the worst the sun could do? In 2014, Bruce Tsurutani (JPL) and Gurbax Lakhina (Indian Institute of Geomagnetism) introduced the “Perfect CME.” It would be fast, leaving the sun around 3,000 km/s, and aimed directly at Earth. Moreover, it would follow another CME, which would clear the path in front of it, allowing the storm cloud to hit Earth with maximum force.

None of this is fantasy. The Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) has observed CMEs leaving the sun at speeds up to 3,000 km/s. And there are many documented cases of…

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